Comment by cong-or | Hacker News Reader

Comment by cong-or | Hacker News Reader

Interesting framing. The article makes a compelling case that we're seeing the hangover from 14 years of ZIRP-fueled hiring rather than an AI apocalypse.

But I'm curious what people think the equilibrium looks like. If the "two-tier system" (core revenue teams + disposable experimental teams) becomes the norm, what does that mean for the future of SWE as a career?

A few scenarios I keep turning over:

  1. Bifurcation - A small elite of "10x engineers" command premium comp while the majority compete for increasingly commoditized roles                                                       
  2. Craftsmanship revival - Companies learn that the "disposable workforce" model ships garbage, and there's renewed appreciation for experienced engineers who stick around                 
  3. Consulting/contractor becomes default - Full-time employment becomes rare; most devs work project-to-project like other creative industries

The article argues AI isn't the cause, but it seems like it could accelerate whatever trend is already in motion. If companies are already treating engineers as interchangeable inventory, AI tooling gives them cover to reduce headcount further.

For those of you 10+ years into your careers: are you optimistic about staying in IC roles long-term, or does management/entrepreneurship feel like the only sustainable path?

As someone with many animator friends, this sounds very bleak. Their work processes are very similar to software engineering, with the difference that their hiring process is much quicker (they just show a bunch of reels and shots they made for previous films or cartoons, and they’re hired). The sad part is that they have almost no labor rights, and competition is incredibly high, which means pay is very low and turnover is high. All these years, I’ve been setting my expectations that one day my field may become like that.

The difference is animation is part of the entertainment industry and software engineering is part of every industry. I don't really think it will ever be like animators are today, but I wouldn't be surprised if wages fall.

Well I think there's an oversupply of CS engineers, not of animators

There's definitely an oversupply of animators, but probably not to the extent of CS at the moment.

#1 is inevitable; the Pareto distribution is everywhere. I read a paper on how it naturally shows up when people can act on preferences, but can't remember the paper (and it was in the context of why cities show a Pareto distribution)

#2 there will always be craftsmanship companies, but they will always be small companies, or a small team within a big organization. Craftsmanship doesn't scale; engineering does.

#3 contracting won't become the default. Many places have experimental or well-contained projects, or not enough ongoing work for full-time, but anywhere that custom-built software is important to the business will always need changes and maintenance. The problem with using contractors is that after their contract is over, they go find another contract, so they may not be available when you would like to re-use them, and then you've got to start over with a new one.

Look at any other industry. It's going to be like that.

Low–wage employees without agency.

"Consulting/contractor becomes default - Full-time employment becomes rare; most devs work project-to-project like other creative industries"

I'm in the tech industry and have been doing this for 12+ years now. In the beginning, it was because I wanted to live overseas for a few years, without a break in my career.

Now, it's about survival. I buy my own health insurance (me and my family) in the marketplace every year (so I'm not tied to an employer), work with multiple clients (I never really have to worry about getting laid off), and make much more than a FTE.

While all my friends in tech are getting laid off or constantly in fear of getting laid off, I don't have to worry.

I also find that because I touch so many different technologies, I have to turn down work. I turned down a company last year, that wanted me in-house and one this year that would have been too demanding on my schedule.

It's also flexible and always remote.

Are you a one-person shop? How do you find clients?

Almost always they start by having connections that hire them (old colleagues, former friends, etc.), building out those connections (conference talks, doing really good work, writing high quality blogs), and then if you're lucky, some word of mouth.

Can confirm.

Good points - admittedly, I didn’t put enough effort into building connections through different pipelines back when I was contracting. Upwork and a few personal connections were my sole sources.

It just felt really difficult to do both the engineering work while trying to do customer development at the same time.

The fact that OP has been able to do this for so long, while supporting a family, piqued my interest.

How did you get into this? How would you recommend transitioning from FTE to this life?

Have been doing this for ~3 years as a way to bring into the industry. Has more or less worked (to that end), but the art of finding + maintaining a pipeline of potential clients while working contracts full-time to sustain a family is.. difficult. (And now that I'm qualified to get a real job in the industry, many raise eyebrows at the plethora of short-term contracts).

I'm happy to hear it's been working out for you, though. How do you manage/succeed?

I was consulting like this too, but my wife also had a full time corporate job. It all kind of ended with her team having layoffs around the same time that most of my clients figured out that they could use AI to do most of my work at a tiny fraction of my rate. I had built up a lot of experience working with oil and gas software, and I thought that was pretty solid, but it's hard to compete with $20 a month. Anyway, after all that, I found a stable job with good health insurance.

I am 10+ years into my career. I don’t think mgmt / entrepreneurship feels like the only sustainable path. But I believe I may become a manager of a 5-10 Claudes.

What are your Claudes going to be building and who is going to fund it?

I always saw it as bimodal (even before LLMs) - you have folks working in regular shops making average comp, and you have the big tech elites earning high base + equity comp.

The Pragmatic Engineer argues it's actually trimodal (at least in Europe): https://blog.pragmaticengineer.com/software-engineering-sala...

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