Someone inside Microsoft probably did see it coming. That comic of their org chart being individual bubbles, all pointing guns at each other really does explain that company's behavior.

Microsoft doesn't seem to be one unified entity, but a bunch of smaller competing companies under the same umbrella, each trying to destroy the other.

Allegedly Sony saw the writing on the wall and secured a good amount of GDDR supply for their consoles. Microsoft did not, and has had to raise the price of the Xbox Series X as a result.

I don't think that Microsoft knows what Microsoft is doing.