There is widespread denialism in the tech community about this. Most think they will never get replaced until they get a call from the manager. It's called normalcy bias.
HN has always been like this though. Smart but lots of hubris. They believe the world will always value their current skills as much as pre-Covid
Why hinge it on COVID?
In the 90s, I remember explaining to my college econ professor that the cost of developing software would decrease to zero within 30 years. He kind of got it but then kept encouraging kids to study computer science for the money.
Kids in the 90's would have had long fruitful careers making much more than the median american for relatively easy and stable work.
I saw the writing on the wall the first day in the office. Microsoft was already dumping loads of R&D money into software development automation. They were very motivated. Everyone hated software developers because we made too much money relative to people with important positions. And, we were too weird. To them, we were 'blue collar'. I figured with exponential progress it wouldn't take long. Pretty much my strategy after college was bank and invest and get out as early as possible then go hack on my own projects until my end of days.
Since 2021 to 2022 there was an artificial boom where more people entered the sector than would have had due to printing of money
During covid overhiring visibly hurt engineering quality. It was visible within and outside $FAANG
Agreed, and not just engineering quality. The company I've been with for 8 years is on its last legs and massive overhiring has had a huge hand in it. It cost a tremendous amount of money and made management more difficult, reducing the quality of the decisionmaking in many areas. It made its strategy deviate further from doing the things that would have made the company sustainable. It also devastated employee morale with the subsequent repeated waves of layoffs.