Oh Yeah, it's the AI. It can't be that GDP growth has stalled to 0.1 per quarter. We are definitely not heading for a recession guys. It's all unicorns rainbows and robot butlers in our future.
The companies responding know best why they do and don't hire.
I once saw a survey question (on what the view was of economic outlook and exchange rates) been bounced to someone junior, who then looked to an external source which based its answer partly on the previous version of the same survey.
It is October, and the Indians on a remote reservation ask their new Chief if the coming winter is going to be cold or mild…
:)
What we would be seeing if the AI uptake was productive would be faster GDP growth, and an uptick in the job market as they would be looking for people to leverage the AI into even more productive gains.
With your first point that would be in public, but they do not have the same incentives replying to a survey with the promise of confidentiality.
With the second yes, but not in the short term.
Growth was 1.1% in 2025, not great but saying it was 0.1% per quarter is deceptive.
>We are definitely not heading for a recession guys.
The consensus for 2026 is 1.4%, definitely not a recession.
2026 just started, these are all forecasts. I guess we will see.
Why not both?