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Comment by olalonde | Hacker News Reader

From Trump's POV, $1 million is probably not worth the ensuing backlash.

FWIW, prediction markets don't seem to believe he will be pardoned either[0].

[0] https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-trump-pardon-before-20...

It is disappointing to me that people can look at the list of infamous people he has already pardoned, who have paid him, and then expect that he won't continue acting on trend, just because some shallow-book manipulable prediction market, which is primarily a money laundering tool for event fixers, tells us that it's "not likely".

I think that because of my own judgment, not because the market told me. Also, it seems unlikely that someone would burn money to manipulate this market as there's nothing to gain from it.

By the way, Trump literally said he won't pardon SBF[0]. It seems money is not the only factor he considers when handing out pardons.

[0] https://finance.yahoo.com/news/trump-not-pardon-sam-bankman-...

> By the way, Trump literally said he won't pardon SBF[0].

So Trump will pardon SBF?

Wha backlash? Trump pardoned a Honduran ex-president convicted of smuggling tons of drugs, right in the midst of using the military to bomb boats for unproven drug smuggling, and kidnapped Maduro presumably because of drugs too (or was it oil?). Zero repercussions except for futile anger from internet weirdos like me.

This administration seems to relish getting away with things that would destroy any other presidency.

By the way, have any more boats been bombed since the US ousted Maduro?

Yes.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/us-35th-strike-alleged-drug-boa...

The backlash was relatively mild because few of his supporters personally see themselves as victims of the Honduran ex-president. That's very different from SBF—almost everyone who invested in crypto at the time hates him, not to mention the actual FTX customers.

Everybody hates Trump, he's the least popular president ever.

Unless these crypto folks have massive money and are using it right now to pay Trump tk not pardon SBF, what would they do? What backlash could crypto do? It's not like he can unpardon Trump. Crypto just joins the long line of people who fell for it again and nothing happens.

What, is a Republican going to vote against Trump? Hah! Impeachment? What trouble could crypto cause for Trump? Even if they could cause trouble, Trump would just make up charges and send the DOJ after crypto.

I mean, even his own son would probably be pissed at him. Not to mention pretty much everyone in his crypto entourage, which is a lot of people.

You are avoiding my questions. What does their anger matter? Concretely, how could that impact Trump?

Like most people, he probably understands the value of keeping a few friends and allies close, even if it's purely self-interest. At Trump's scale, some relationships are worth billions, so a bribe of a few million can be a poor trade-off if it risks burning a high-value relationship.

Trump is not a normal person with normal friends.

Sure some relationships might be worth it, but whose? Trump already got the votes, which is what let him avoid prosecution for insurrection, mishandling of classified documents, etc. etc.

What friend or relationship would he lose for pardoning SBF? It has to be a billionaire, because he respects billionaires, or it has to be somebody paying home more than SBF to keep SBF in jail. What billionaire would risk their relationship with Trump in order to express displeasure about pardoning SBF? Wha person would pay more than SBF to keep SBF imprisoned?

Again and again Trump burns people that supported him. There is zero loyalty, everything is purely transactional.

I'll give a concrete example. Suppose he were to pardon SBF. That would likely anger figures like CZ (Binance) and Brian Armstrong (Coinbase). In response, they could choose to delist Trump's shitcoin, which alone could wipe out hundreds of millions in market cap. Anyways, I guess we'll see who’s right in about three years.

Thanks for that concrete example! It's far more convincing. However I'm still not fully convinced, as Trump has greater leverage due to the ability to change tax and other crypto policy. He already gets what he needs by allowing bribes through Trump's coins, listing is not the primary purpose.

I appreciate you exchanging this information and your opinion.

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