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Comment by chakintosh | Hacker News Reader

> but of the (very potential) rise of China as the premier automotive super power.

It's done. They're already the premier automotive superpower now. It might not seem like it in Europe and USA, but anywhere else in the world they are dominating. I live in Morocco and I am not exaggerating when I say that every week I see a new Chinese brand on the road. Not just cars of the same brand, completely new brands. Dacia and a lot of PSA cars are built in Morocco, so naturally they always had a strong positioning here, but now I'm seeing more BYDs than DACIA's most popular car, the Duster. It's anecdotal but it's quite telling considering the foothold French brands have always had here.

Here's a chart showing the sheer dominance of Chinese brands on the EV market in Morocco. 6 out of 10 models are Chinese.

https://www.wandaloo.com/files/2026/01/aivam-bilan-marche-au...

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>every week I see a new Chinese brand on the road

And I think the difference is going to be apparent 15-20 years from now when new parts are needed for these models.

With the big boys like Ford, Toyota etc I can trust that they manufactured (and still manufacture) parts with warehouses full of them and I can always find the part I need to repair a vehicle.

I very much doubt that we will see the same thing with Chinese auto companies, even premier ones like BYD.

> And I think the difference is going to be apparent 15-20 years from now when new parts are needed for these models.

Perhaps unstated, but this is going to be like trying to find parts for my Nokia 3210 (current age: 27). EVs are still in the "rapid improvement" phase, and by the time the battery warranty expires (5-7 years) the cars available on the current market will be significantly better in all respects.

On the other hand, they just have far fewer "parts" in the first place. Early indication is very good for lifetimes of the non-battery parts.

I expect the median EV of today to have a shorter life than a corresponding ICE, but the EV of 10 years time to have a much longer one. Which is going to make all the stupid issues around infotainment and subscription issues more acute.

The average age of all cars on UK roads has just hit 10 years: https://www.racfoundation.org/media-centre/average-car-in-th... ; EVs skew young because they're new.

No EV is going to run 20 years from now unless replacing batteries will start costing significantly less.

That seems to be a myth. Real world data is showing most EV batteries are still in their first use (powering cars) at the 20 year mark. Once you have removed early model years of Nissan's Leaf and Tesla's everything before they began actively managing battery temperature (and removed the high totaled by accident rate of Teslas), EVs are generally lasting 15-20 years.

(The other direction: the costs of battery replacements haven't gone down because the demand mostly doesn't exist. The "range degradation" of EV batteries at 20 years isn't noticeable to the owners at 20 years.)

Tbf batteries last quite a while...current ones maybe not 20 years of hard driving, but near-future battery tech seem like they'd be able to handle it.

I'd be more concerned about the underlying skateboard of the car; all the mechanical bits & bobs that are still required for an electric car i.e. the "car" part. I feel like new Chinese manufacturers' skateboard will be hugely inconsistent over time, whereas you find that consistency with established manufacturers - for example many EVs started out built on top of a manufacturer's existing platform.

In Europe there's plenty of Chinese cars to be honest.

And they often outsell European cars price-to-price, even through tariffs. It's crazy.

The whole topic of tariffs on their cars is also very complicated that European automakers aren't in favour of, because large parts of their sales come from outside Europe.

And Chinese brands are more than willing to tank the prices to absorb those tariffs

thanks, how is the consumer response ? they love it ? quality is good ? and prices too ?

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