> They are powerful tools for forecasting complex events that can help enrich and empower folks from across a range of backgrounds.
gross. This sounds like a press release.
It's gambling dressed-up as forecasting.
gross. This sounds like a press release.
It's gambling dressed-up as forecasting.
There's quite a bit of interesting research done on the accuracy, here's a great resource:
As I see it it seems to be a way to incentivize insiders to leak information, e.g. see the alleged Google insider betting on Google actions: https://www.forbes.com/sites/boazsobrado/2025/12/04/alleged-...
Great for the person who has insider knowledge, probably not so great for Google. I wouldn't be surprized if some companies start cracking down on their employees making bank off unannounced company actions.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/white-house-briefing-fuels-in...
My description, and appreciation, for these types of tools and their trade-offs comes from reading about their early proposals. I don't trade or engage with any of them in their current form.
Recommend reading early work on them by Phillip Tetlock, as well as the many criticisms and responses that came about at the time and basically covered all of the ground we're retreading today in these discussions.