One thing is for sure: If Trump for whatever reason manages to attack Greenland, there will be some signals beforehand. Like moving any and all US personnel currently in Denmark, out of Denmark. There's a good chance US personnel in neighboring countries would also need to be moved out, like in Norway.
A military attack on Greenland would send the US and Europe into a geopolitical crisis.
I think that the US threatening to invade Europe or Canada already qualifies as some kind of geopolitical crisis, doesn't it?
Action is permanent.
All I did was try to see past all the nonsense in the news and try to observe actions.
In a way they have forced EU to do part of what they wanted: take security more seriously and signing some sort of "deal" allows everyone to walk away.
This was a really dumb way to go about it but Trump does not do smart politics. The long term mess will be inherited by his successor and they will be blamed for it.
But we're already off to a horrid 2026 between Venezuela and Minnesota, and even Jerome Powell. This isn't just big words anymore. Trump's shown he's willing to escalate to foreign intervention, shoot citizens in the street in broad daylight, and disrupt the core Dollar itself to fit his needs. I wouldn't rule out anything at this point.
>The long term mess will be inherited by his successor and they will be blamed for it.
Sure, but that was never in question. Trump appointed Powell and no one in the media brings this up. People still think Biden is the one who screwed up the immediate COVID response (hell, Trump caught COVID and I almost feel we're in some bizarro world that no one talks about this). And I've even seen absolutely fringe takes that Biden was president during Jan 6th.
We're sadly in a post truth era. You don't change the minds of people like that with obvious, verifiable facts. I don't know what to do with them. I feel it takes less energy to focus efforts on those who can still be reasoned with than to convert the devout.
For the record im not saying any of these things are good. As a millenial, I completely understand that what this idiot is doing is going to take the rest of the millennial lifespan to correct and hopefully improve things for the next generation. He has forced us to become a transitional generation, but at the same time we need to take these things one at a time and understand what is bluster and what is action.
Clearly, the Venezuela raid is action and it's set into motion some dire consequences, but if you look at it from 50,000 feet it is not the same thing as the Greenland situation. The Greenland situation has been all fluster. There hasn't even been movements on the American side in terms of troop movements. Lets look at this article and its concept of "strategic deception"
To treat this as real preparation for Greenland, I would argue that we should see at least some of the following: overseas deployment authorities invoked, War Powers legal movement, classified funding reprogramming, NATO ally notifications or deconfliction, airlift tasking orders toward the North Atlantic, pre-positioning of sustainment or maritime assets(I'd argue most important)
What we have:
1. A unnamed CSIS analyst offering a conceptual possibility
2. no documents, orders, or timelines
3. no corroboration from Reuters/AP (Important)
This article is definitely in the bluster category.
On the EU side they are obviously not in support of what America wants, and the most they have done is place a small number of troops and give a lot of rhetorical pushback.
The thing in Minnesota, again, was very terrible, and it remains to be seen if it expands into full‑on martial law. But martial law is the actual action. That's the door that leads to real consequences.
We have to separate the action from the bluster. Ruling out anything is just falling into the media narrative.
>We're sadly in a post truth era. You don't change the minds of people like that with obvious, verifiable facts. I don't know what to do with them. I feel it takes less energy to focus efforts on those who can still be reasoned with than to convert the devout.
I'm in complete agreement with you. My thinking is that I think back to a saying discussed at the end of Chernobyl: it was a disaster that was partly a response to hiding the truth. You cannot avoid the truth, eventually that debt has to be paid, and many times it's paid in irreparable damage. When that debt is paid, all the bluster in the world, all the fake news, all the "alternative facts" can try to hold back the debt but it must be settled.
How do we translate that to the modern day? I suspect it's going to be a repeat of what happened during the George W. Bush era. When the economy finally crashed, all that pig‑headedness and honcho behavior that Bush supporters exhibited quietly disappeared. Many of them retreated into their caves for a while...at least until the United States elected a Black man and gave them a reason to come out and be hateful again.
Some were so devastated by reality finally bearing down on them that many abandoned the Republican Party and actually voted for Obama twice (only to be let down again) and now end up with either Bernie or Trump.
1. Trump accuses Venezuela of trafficking in drugs to the US
2. Trump blows up a ship under suspicion of harboring drugs, breaking multiple laws in the process
3. January 3rd just happens. Congress is unaware, the press is unaware, the only dang signal of something major going on was increased orders from a local pizza joint.
4. The admin tries to spin it as drugs. Trump very openly says it's about Oil
5. the admin fumbles to talk about next steps. The supposed regime Trump wants to topple remains and already defects against the US.
6. in meetings with Oil companies (again, not congress. not his Cabinet. Oil companies), he now tries to sell the idea of investing in Venezuela
7. Pretty much no one except Chevron is really committing because it's an unstable situation. Trump comes out and says "we reached an agreement" anyway.
And here we are today (and that's the cliff notes. Not even mentioning how many the US killed in that Raid despite saying "no casualties". Or the idea of charging a venezuelan leader under old US laws. Or the mentality of Stephen Miller as a white nationalist war mongerer). The actions were not only compltetely reckless and circumvented all legal channels, but it also had zero mid/long term planning. It wasn't some carefully orchestrated upheaval. Even his greed can't think more than a few days ahead.
So yes. We have a stupid and reckless president. We can't really apply the same logical channels to this that we would for any other operation. We can only look at what's happened so far
1. President "jokes" about wanting greenland last year. And Canada. Remember that even going this far would be near impeachable offense in normal times
2. Trump runs a bunch of tarriffs on the whole world.
3. Trump tries to go on the "peace president" narrative to try and get the Nobel Peace Prize. Because Obama won one. this massively backfires in multiple ways
4. Trump does not win the peach prize. Well, he won the coveted FIFA peace prize. But that clearly wasn't enough for his ego
5. Venezuela happens. Talks on claiming Greenland continue to ramp back up.
6. Stephen Miller goes on an unhinged rant on CNN about the "Donroe doctrine" and spouts about how history had had countries conquer by force. We'd call it an over the top Onion article in normal times
7. White House reports of strategic advisers needing to refuse illegal orders to plan an attack on Greenland. Not corroboated by many because the most trustworthy press is still (illegally) banned from briefings and sources probably can't risk talking to them.
8. As recently as today, Trump made an unhinged letter to Sweden over the Nobel Peace prize kerfluffle. Remember at this time that the real winner already gave her trophy to Trump. But he's mad that Norway had to remind him that this isn't a transferrable reward.
in terms of Venezuela, we're still between #1 and #2 (an actual aggresion). But the amount of utterly deranged drivel coming out shows that once again, this admin is crazy and dumb. A dangerous combination. It's really coming down to whether or not soldiers on the ground can refuse illegal orders to prevent an all out war. This is awfully close to one of those nuclear crises avoided simply because the operator didn't approave the launch.
I really pray you are right and I look back and breathe a sigh of relief. But we truly are on a tipping point right now. And not one we can lay out a logical breadcrumb for (I spent 4 of my points talking about a president mad at not getting the Novel Peace Prize. Of course I'm very worried about the breadcrumbs).
I say the act of shooting US citizens is the action. Marial Law is the point of no return. We could have backtracked on Renee Good with a proper reaction, but instead we get gaslighting and doubling down. As well as autohritain slogans like "one of us, all of you". To use the Venezuela metaphor above, this is the shooting of the ship.
Marial law would be invading Maduro. We can't really come back after that. But we're still past what I see as "they won't take action".
>When the economy finally crashed, all that pig‑headedness and honcho behavior that Bush supporters exhibited quietly disappeared. Many of them retreated into their caves for a while...at least until the United States elected a Black man and gave them a reason to come out and be hateful again.
You're probably right and I really hate that. I don't want this to just be swept under the rug for 8 years until they get emboldened again. I don't know how far we'll really go, but I do at least hope these next 10-12 years or so isn't spent sighing in relief and instead focused on reminding Americans what happened and to energize old and new voters that their votes do in fact matter.
Heck, I'd hope to even lay the groundwork for 3rd parties in that time, but that's probably too ambitious. But I'll at least try to do my part and practice what I preach this time.
I'll always assert that 2024 was lost not because the R's came out in droves, but because D's stayed home. Trump 2024 got less votes than Biden 2020. He did get 3M more (likely due to COVID restrictions coming down), but Harris lost 6 million compared to Biden. We don't fix that by "appealing to R's", we need to get the D's back (because I doubt half of all Biden voters converted overnight to Trump).
>I say the act of shooting US citizens is the action. Marial Law is the point of no return. We could have backtracked on Renee Good with a proper reaction, but instead we get gaslighting and doubling down. As well as autohritain slogans like "one of us, all of you". To use the Venezuela metaphor above, this is the shooting of the ship.
Yeah for people observing in Europe this situation is beyond crazy. The standards have dropped so far in the US. Historically the state has enacted violence against people in the past. Ask George Floyd..ask the countless minorities that have had to live with this fear.
I'm reminded of the time I volunteered for Bernie Sanders in 2020. I was very dismayed when he lost South Carolina. He was on a massive winning streak and even seeing TV pundits who were all for the establishment start to get scared and cry on TV about Bernie winning made me realize that maybe he could pull it off! When he collapsed in South Carolina, I asked friends in both Georgia and South Carolina as to why he cannot seem to get through to older black folks. They were the main reason he collapsed and broke sharply against their kids who were for Bernie. They went for Biden in huge numbers despite the fact that Bernie was on the front lines fighting for civil rights (He is that old).
Turns out, they all had this learned helplessness where Biden promised that nothing would fundamentally change. That to them was better then taking a risk to go against the system (By supporting Sanders) and potentially losing the few breadcrumbs they fought for over their lives.
The craziness you see is decades of the state molding its people to accept this reality. Its crazier to think that as of a few years ago old about half the country does not even have a passport. They haven't even seen how the rest of the world operates (either because they cant afford it or the continent is so big that it has every season you could possibly want).
Regarding third parties, I'm not too sure that will happen. There was a massive online push among some of the most leftist people in 2020 to push for a Green party vote. Howie Hawkins and the party have done a commendable job in such an unforgiving system to raise the stature of the green party but even as of today they are not on all state ballots. In 2020 their numbers were terrible. I think we are forced to reckon that either we take over the Democratic party like Trump did the Republican party or there is no way forward. The parties have decades (centuries?) of deep institutional knowledge of each area of the country that it would take an unprecedented event for a third party to take over.
I blame the Democratic party for 2024. They played games with their voters in the hopes of avoiding a repeat of 2020. I'm convinced that they knew all along that Biden was not a long term prospect and they always intended to put Kamala in bypassing the primary. Kamala was on track to lose her own home state in the 2020 primary and dropped out early to avoid the potential career ending embarrassment. Due to the party wanting her as the pick they put her in place as the VP and then she spent four years completely fumbling her one assignment: immigration. They then put this person at the top of the ticket and expect pissed off voters to come out for her?! The party was already polling in the low 30s during the biden years. They deserve the majority of the blame for playing games.
We still have a storm to do through, so I hope we can have more of this discusion after that dust settles (and not have the community flag all efforts to have such talks in a more subtle space). But I do think 2 unprecedented events happening in real tome may shift some thinking after said storm.
1. Seeing Trump's reign and the several tepid responses will definitely radicalise America on both ends. But the response from the right over the year on the micro scale is definitely changing. I'm not exactly in a red area, but even I saw all the trump memorabilia in 2024. That's pretty much all disappeared over the 2nd half of the year.
2. Simply put, those older folk will die out. People who held the reigns for an unprecedentedly long time. I just hope Millenial did not learn this same helplessness as they (including I) had to spend their 20s or 30s navigating this hellhole of a government. And Gen Z especially can't even get a boot on the ground as the country tells them they are lazy and entitled. Saying "you will be be jobless and like it" isn't how you create learn helplessness.
It may not be in 2032 or even 2036, but as long as we don't forget these feelings, we can push to something unprecedented yet again.
If you tell your neighbour "I will soon come to your house and kill you", and your neighbour buys a gun to defend themselves specifically against you, doesn't it count as "action"?
By the way, if you threaten the physical integrity of someone with "just words" and they go to the police, I don't think it counts for "nothing".
Why? I mean, if this was another president and another scenario, I'd agree. But I can very well imagine Trump taking Greenland by force and at the same time leaving all American units in Europe as they are.
Of course it makes no sense. You're trying to apply logic to the illogical. We should know by now that this is an admin driven by ego. Not by duty nor even something sensible like greed or ideology.
>if the unthinkable happens, I believe American soldiers would be quite safe staying in Denmark.
I sure hope you're right. Meanwhile;
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-01-20/greenland...
So that might indicate some of the apparent urgency to make this happen now before SCOTUS rules.
Unfortunately a lot of damage is already done, even if we walk it all back our allies will no longer trust us - nor should they.