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Comment by contrarian1234 | Hacker News Reader

Russia is not an active economic rival. If they weren't actively attacking neighbors and interfere with governments around the world they would be basically irrelevant. I think the situation is radically different from China. Russia seems to have intentionally positioned themselves as enemies b.c it's part of their identity and the government's attempt to retain some relevance on the international stage

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I was commenting more on: >China as the enemy is a fabricated narrative, bc culturally we seem to have a need to have another cold war, we need a "bad guy"

Than the economic rival aspect.

Because that was exactly what the Democratic party narrative was in 2012, with similar views echoed in Europe.

>Romney's claim drew a memorable slam from Obama during a presidential debate: "The 1980s, they're now calling to ask for their foreign policy back," Obama said, seeking to paint Romney as out of touch on a key foreign policy issue.

>Albright, who similarly criticized Romney in 2012, said she'd "underestimated" Russia back then.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/abcnews.go.com/amp/Politics/yea...

>The EU and Russia are not only neighbours but strategic partners who cooperate on a wide range of bilateral and global challenges, based on joint commitments and shared interests.

https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/memo_1...

>In 2014, Russia’s annexation of Crimea and its military intervention in eastern Ukraine following Ukraine’s intention to sign an Association Agreement (AA) with the European Union caught the EU by surprise.

https://eu.boell.org/en/2017/07/03/eu-russia-relations-towar...

Are you trying to say there is a parallel in that the right voices read the tea leaves correctly and knew that Russia was going to be a crazy rogue state? And that similarly, there are signs China is going to get super belligerent in the future?

I would first say that what happened with Russia, at least to me, did not seem inevitable even with hindsight. I don't think Romney had some keen foresight - more like a lucky guess.

I also don't really see the same happening with China, though it's of course possible. A sudden economic downturn could trigger a need for an external enemy and a conflict.

But a military conflict between the US and China just seems like an absurd fantasy. It'd how you end up with a nuclear war and the death of millions. I don't think the Chinese secretly want this in the long run. They want peace and more business and more wealth

I don't think Romney had some keen foresight either, he just saw the tension that existed between Russia and their neighbors and didn't take the rose tinted one world, everything is going to work out view.

What you term 'crazy rogue state' is just countries looking at their own self interests.

India and Pakistan have been fighting. Thailand and Cambodia have been fighting. Which of those are rogue?

China has made large territory claims in the ocean and is in conflict with it's neighbors over that.

Maybe they are closer to being a rogue state than you think.

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