Well, the US legal system is that broken, I see him with high chances of winning, somehow? (like "we give you 50% of what you are asking for but shut up now")
For comparison purposes, the defendants should argue the valuation is what it is because musk is not in it. Consequently at worst it's a few millions.
If you are confident that you can reach arbitrary judgments in about 1% of all cases, maybe via corruption, political influence or just random arbitrariness of court decisions, would this mean the expected value of this suit is approximately 1.3B usd minus ~10m legal fees?
Yes and in this case, it's not even that much an arbitrary judgement. I don't like the man but Musk has far more standing to go against Microsoft and OpenAI because the shenanigans they pulled were just that much more brazen.
IAAL (not legal advice) and find your comment confusing: first, because standing is a question of whether you can even have your complaint heard by a court; and second, because “brazenness” doesn’t necessarily make a case stronger.
Well there’s potential counter suit or court order to pay legal fees of the other party that might affect the profitability. I am not a lawyer
No because penalty amounts are routinely slashed to a tiny fraction of the original claim.
Expected value calculations are terrible unless applied to a situation of hundreds or thousands of outcomes.
Otherwise you be stupid NOT to buy a lottery ticket each week.
The expected value of a lottery ticket is lower than its nominal value, for obvious reasons.