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Comment by tomrod | Hacker News Reader

Good analysis. Let me comment that it would be improved by investigating quarterly or yearly quota, or controlling for budget deficits (e.g. if 2010 has a large expected budget deficit, likely in September 2009 tickets begin being written with greater frequency).

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It would be interesting to ask the Baltimore PD what incentives are given to officers to write speeding tickets. [I bet they claim none] Then, ask some cops on the street what the real incentive system is like. From there, use the data to see how cops respond to both the real and official incentives.

I wonder if ticket writing happens when there's nothing better to do. It would be interesting to see the correlation between arrests for "real" stuff and traffic tickets. Are there differences in pay rates based on days/times worked? Do more tickets get written when rates are low vs. 2.5x pay on a holiday? Does the PD only staff for necessities when rates are higher or when officers most desire time off?

I'm surprised I haven't read something yet about Stephen Levitt looking at this data. This provides such incredible insight into the impact of incentives and lets us compare the probability that the official incentive policy is perceived as accurate by the officers vs. the likely real but unwritten incentives.

It'd probably be better to first ask cops, and then ask officials. If cops give examples, and officials say none, then you can ask officials about the examples cops have. But ask them plainly first. Give them a chance to be honest with you. Or hang themselves.

Thanks. There is so much more that could be explored here. It's difficult to really come up with an answer with so many different factors, which is why I'm reluctant to point the finger at quotas in my conclusion.

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