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Comment by vaylian | Hacker News Reader

Whenever you hear a politician say "carbon neutral by 2050", interrupt them. The real goal is to avoid getting too far over 1.5 degrees warming. We need to avoid reaching tipping points that will cause non-recoverable damage to the earth system. The year 2050 is meaningless. Actual global average temperatures is what should be measured.

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You're still hearing politicians talk about climate change? This could be an American bubble but I haven't heard talk of climate change from US politicians, or the other global leaders that filter through our news cycle, since 2023.

Of course. Here's the Australian PM 4 months ago:

https://www.pm.gov.au/media/setting-australias-2035-climate-...

Here's the NZ PM last month:

https://www.ruralnewsgroup.co.nz/rural-news/rural-general-ne...

I would imagine it's a relevant political football in most first world countries. I avoid American news, but the bits I see make me think it's probably still focused on culture war garbage.

2050 is not meaningless. Its close enough to feel like its achievable but far enough away that you can put off immediate action and still feel there is time to get it done. Reminds of the lyrics of the spirit of the west song:

It's a ways outside of town

But the distance has its uses

Close enough to make the effort

Far enough to make excuses.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jZXgl5KxUQY

https://theshovel.com.au/2021/10/26/man-announces-he-will-qu...

This.

A couple years back I saw articles about how we're basically less than a year from the tipping point.

Then nothing.

My guess is we passed the tipping point. It's inevitable by now.

Berkeley Earth berkeleyearth.org › home › global temperature report for 2023 Global Temperature Report for 2023 - Berkeley Earth

February 29, 2024 - 2023 was the warmest year on Earth since direct observations began, and the first year to exceed 1.5 °C above our 1850-1900 average. ...

For sure but we can still stop making it even worse.

Even if we stop all emissions right now, we'll exceed the 1.5C target, so...

Every point of a degree we can mitigate will matter a lot.

The nice thing with climate change is that it can always get worse !

If we miss the 1.5 target then the next target is 1.51. And so on.

The Doomerist paralysis has been engineered by the folks who look to benefit the most from inaction, mainly the fossil fuel and related industries.

To not even attempt to head for the lifeboats is suicide.

Exactly what is it about CO2, a plant food, that scares you so much? You do realize that green plants react to increased CO2 percentage with stronger growth?

You're the one calling me a "doomer"?

Plants and humans both love water, but you can still drown.

Where do i even begin to respond to this?

Plants growing slightly faster does not mitigate the many consequences of increased CO2.

Nitrate is a plant food too, doesn't mean it's not killing large parts of the ocean.

I didn't call you anything, I wasn't even talking to you.

I don't think it's that easy to interrupt politicians, especially these days as more and more protections are justifiably given to them.

Do you have an example where you personally interrupted a politician effectively?

That goal is no longer possible.

I agree that staying below 1.5°C is extremely unlikely at this point. But it is still worthwhile to try to keep it under 1.6°C.

My new conspiracy theory is that Trump wants Greenland, because most of south and central America will be too hot. There are 800mln people south of Colorado. 30% will emigrate north.

Isn't it interesting how the warming target is always a few tenths of a degree above the current level of warming?

> We need to avoid reaching tipping points that will cause non-recoverable damage to the earth system.

Then I'd be far more worried about nuclear war than minor temperature excursions. Aside from that "non recoverable" damage happens every day. What do you think mining is?

> Actual global average temperatures is what should be measured.

On average it was 10 degrees Fahrenheit cooler last year than it was the previous where I live in northern CA.

Congratulations, you know the local weather

Local weather is what matters to individuals. So is access to affordable energy.

You cannot coerce someone to ignore their local weather and sabotage access to affordable energy because of some global average. It’s a losing battle that’s fundamentally misled.

You have to coerce the individual to follow the strategic direction despite tactical disadvantages. This is what leadership means.

If we all individually spend more money to accommodate the effects of climate change than their causes, then we are wasting enormous economic resources.

Sure, but local is a radius. There's my local, then there's my region's local, then there's my country's local. As wonderful as globalism sounds on paper, if saving the global average leads to a drought or a flood for another country, or another region, then you are trying to convince others of giving up a lot for no tangible relevant gain.

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