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Comment by bootsmann | Hacker News Reader

The problem is NATO, a lot of the EU is reluctant to push back because at the end of the day the US guarantees that Russia cannot pursue the type of landgrab it is currently trying to do in Ukraine against other states. The risk that the US runs into when trying to take Greenland is that this argument loses weight instantly, so the expectation is that the EU will be much more willing to use its anti coercion tools if Trump tries to make it a reality.

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Russia already fails in Ukraine where they are fighting with our old junk, and the other EU States are kicking their defense industry in full gear. What makes you think they could win a full scale war against the EU

Russia don't have to be able to win a full-scale war against the EU for such a war to break out, it suffices that deterrence breaks down sufficiently that Russia get the idea they can get away with some land grab, e.g. in one of the Baltic countries.

The war in Ukraine illustrates very well the difference between perception and reality. Perception counts for deterrence.

The Baltics are protected under the EU defence clause, NATO or not they will be assisted by the EU.

It's already quite clear the US has virtually left NATO, at this point they wouldn't assist at all with a landgrab in the Baltics so I'm glad the EU defence treaty is more forceful about the level of aid/assistance than Article 5.

NATO at this point is virtually dead, there's no trust in the USA and the rhetoric about Greenland has cemented it. Hope the Canucks can join a defence pact with the EU, the Trump admin and its Project 2025 achieved what they wanted.

I don't think they could win at all, but Putin has proven that he can convince himself otherwise so an invasion might still happen.

Old junk? Drones are old junk? Do you even understand what a full scale war with Russia entails? Total annihilation of Europe for starters.

I guess your position is that Russia is not at "full scale war" with Ukraine then.

Currently that entails "large drone attacks" that kill two and injure dozens.

That's a little short of the full scale war Russia could wield in WWI and WWII.

You might want to check some reliable sources about how the war is going for Ukraine, because it seems like you think they are kicking some Russian bootie, which is simply not the case. Take the US (and risk of mutual worldwide nuclear contamination) out of the equation and Ukraine would be in even worse shape.

> because it seems like you think they are kicking some Russian bootie,

This seems like quite the assumption.

It is generally a mistake to attempt telepathy/IP.

Russia not doing nearly as well as one might expect for an aging out core of a former superpower is not an equivilance with their target is kicking their arse.

The grind Russia is having to go through against Ukraine is an indicator of how it might fare against a full NATO (sans the US).

For a supposed superpower they are doing very badly

".. because at the end of the day the US guarantees that Russia cannot pursue the type of landgrab it is currently trying to do in Ukraine against other states"

I am sorry to say that we (Europeans) increasingly do not believe that the US would help us.

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