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Where do you get your majority from?

I don't think there is any level of broad agreement right now. There are tons of random camps none of which I would consider to be broadly dominating.

Who is in this group of ML researchers?

People with OpenAI shares, probably.

The ones being paid a million dollars a year by OpenAI to say stuff like that, maybe.

The guy who built chatgpt literally said we're 20 years away?

Not sure how to interpret that as almost imminent.

> The guy who built chatgpt literally said we're 20 years away?

20 years away in 2026, still 20 years away in 2027, etc etc.

Whatever Altman's hyping, that's the translation.

Do you have poll of ML researchers that shows this?

their employment and business opportunities depend on the hype, so they will continue to 'think' that (on xitter) despite the current SOTA of transformers-based models being <100% smarter than >3 year old GPT4, and no revolutionary new architecture in sight.

You're going to be in for a very rude awakening.

Well, can you point us to their research then? Please.