Is the Iranian Regime About to Collapse?

theatlantic.com

16 points·Anon84··8 comments

Maybe, but the resulting ruling regime will eventually be similar. There will be a lot of talk about getting a democratic government in place and maybe there will be one for a bit but ultimately a dictator like government will rule. It turns out that democracy is hard and people have to be willing to constantly fight to keep it. One man rule seems to be the default government that most people get.

> democracy is hard and people have to be willing to constantly fight to keep it

I’m similarly pessimistic about democracy being a universal model. But Iran is a millennia-old civilization with a history that includes strongmen and local rule. If there is somewhere in the Middle East a true republic should work, it’s in Iran.

https://archive.md/moogV

did you notice there is nothing from the Vatican about the theocratic regime?

I think a more likely outcome is Iran comes out the other end of this on Monday morning with 5000 dead.

Agreed. Apparently at least 2000 are already dead, after the IRGC opened fire on protesters in multiple cities.

https://www.iranintl.com/en/202601103903

FWIW I was told after I posted that iranintl.com isn't necessarily a trustworthy source of news, and that Hrana ( https://www.en-hrana.org ) is a better source. The reported numbers are far lower there.

> a more likely outcome is Iran comes out the other end of this on Monday morning with 5000 dead

Agree. But what would you wager on that today versus a year ago?

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