I'm curious as to how Referly is able to link commissions off of Amazon purchases to their users. AFAIK, Amazon doesn't let you do sub-id tracking, only site-wide affiliate tracking (amazon.com/123/?tag=referly-20)
But I'd game the system by spamming the whole service and recommend as many products as possible.
To be honest, I don't believe that refer.ly will succeed. It adds a layer of complexity to the end user. If I recommend a product, I just write a simple email to the persom I'm recommending to. If I recommend a product on my website, I just write about it or use affiliate marketing (e. g. my own Amazon tag). What would I need refer.ly for?
A couple years ago, I've seen a startup called loved.by (google it) which was the exact same thing. It seems that the pivoted now to a more generic affiliate marketing platform.
I think Refer.ly could work if they add enough value to the end user by aggregating every imaginable affiliate service into one and offering some sort of easy to understand and consistent metrics across all of them.
All it takes is a cease and desist letter, a la craigslist and padmapper, and you've lost a large portion of your market.
"You will not offer any person or entity any consideration or incentive (including any money, rebate, discount, points, donation to charity or other organization, or other benefit) for using Special Links (e.g., by implementing any “rewards” or loyalty program that incentivizes persons or entities to visit the Amazon Site via your Special Links)."
Refer.ly clearly violates this.
Purely hypothetical but a potential strategy could be to ignore Amazon's TOS in the early stage and use their breadth of products to entice new users and build critical mass. Soon they get to be big enough that Amazon take's notice and cuts them off. However by that time they have enough momentum and users that they can keep their users happy by offering all the products available through CJ, LinkShare, Share-a-Sale, and their own in house sourced affiliate partners.