What old tennis players teach us (2017)
raphkoster.com
raphkoster.com
Now, in 2026, men's tennis is dominated by Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz, both under 25 years of age
Also, I don't think women's tennis has shown the same cartel effect in the top 5 or top 10 as men's tennis has recently. It seems like there's much more churn there, and many more young players, though I haven't measured this and maybe it's just a feeling.
Any time you have a system with feedback loops and economies of scale / network effects, the natural iterated behavior over time is an increasingly steep power law distribution.
With the digital world where zero marginal costs mean huge economies of scale and social interaction means huge network effects, we are clearly seeing a world dominated by a small number of insanely powerful elites. Seven of the ten richest people in 2025 got there from tech.
Our society wasn't meant to be this connected with this much automated popularity aggregation. It leads to huge inequality until we figure out damping or counterbalancing systems to deal with it.
Edit. A quick investigation shows there is not a significant age difference between men and women for both top 10 player lists and top 100 player lists
I actually think it’s great. The level playing field can get a bit overrated. Hungary entrepreneurs will intuitively understand the parallels.
Instead we got this young duo / lightning in a bottle situation; and I expect that both Sinner and Alcaraz are likely to be playing dominantly into their mid 30s barring injury, or maybe Alcaraz buying a nightclub in Ibiza and retiring.
[edit]: found it - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46595199
Conveniently, for individual sports like tennis there's a guaranteed renewal mechanism - the near-term likelihood of 50 year old tennis champions is low, and that of 80 year old champions is not really worth discussing.
Bateson (and several associated anthropologists) are fascinating to me, though more by reputation than direct knowledge.
And yes I realise that "a lot of [his] work..." suggests that this shouldn't be too hard to find ;-)
... some early exploratory search suggests Toward an Ecology of Mind, perhaps?
https://ejcj.orfaleacenter.ucsb.edu/wp-content/uploads/2017/...
"All biological and evolving systems (i.e., individual organisms, animal and human societies, ecosystems, and the like) consist of complex cybernetic networks, and all such systems share certain formal characteristics. Each system contains subsystems which are potentially regenerative, i.e., which would go into exponential "runaway" if uncorrected. (Examples of such regenerative components are Malthusian characteristics of population, schismogenic changes of personal interaction, armaments races, etc.) The regenerative potentialities of such subsystems are typically kept in check by various sorts of governing loops to achieve "steady state." Such systems are "conservative" in the sense that they tend to conserve the truth of propositions about the values of their component variables—especially they conserve the values of those variables which otherwise would show exponential change. Such systems are homeostatic, i.e., the effects of small changes of input will be negated and the steady state maintained by reversible adjustment."
Thought I've had for a while is that there seems to be a significant difference between exogenous and endogenous selection processes. The biological equivalent would be "mating preferences", which leads to numerous otherwise paradoxical characteristics (peacock's tail, deer antlers, etc.), though those often serve a signalling function. I've long suspected that various ethno-nationalist and eugenics ideologies share a similar fault. I'm not entirely sure that these are distinct from other local-maxima stable points, though I suspect they're not. Exogenous selectors tend not to have confounded biases, one would think.
Looking forward to seeing what Bateson's views are here.
One way to translate your exogenous/endogenous split into his language is: runaway happens when the “selection function” gets trapped inside the system it’s selecting, so the feedback loop selects for its own reinforcement rather than for wider viability. Sexual selection is the clean biological example because preferences can become an internal amplifier: once a trait becomes a strong signal, the preference and the trait can co-evolve into something locally stable but globally costly (tails, antlers, etc.).
Where Bateson gets especially sharp is on schismogenesis (i.e., interaction patterns that escalate because each side’s behavior becomes the stimulus for more of the same). In that sense, a lot of ethno-nationalist / eugenic thinking looks like an attempt to institutionalize a narrowing selection function (“select for X”), while simultaneously insulating it from the broader ecology of feedback (social, economic, moral, informational) that would normally check it. That’s how you get stable local maxima that are brittle and, often, destructive.
On exogenous selectors, though, I’d be cautious. External selectors can absolutely be less confounded by local identity incentives, but they also bring their own blind spots (mis-specified metrics, distance from consequences, Goodhart effects). Bateson’s recurring warning is basically that the more you collapse your evaluation to a single axis, the easier it is to optimize yourself into a corner.
If you want a specific thing to watch for as you read Ecology, keep an eye on how often he treats “pathology” as a property of relationships and feedback, not of individuals. That’s the bridge between mating preferences, ideology, and organizational dynamics.
Bingo. That would also cover examples, e.g., of artificial selection which are exogenous to a specific species, but which also result in lower-fitness traits emerging or becoming dominant. Crops and livestock which must rely on humans for cultivation and protection, or dog/cat breeds with heritable defects such as hip dysplasia, pug noses, or dwarf legs.
keep an eye on how often he treats “pathology” as a property of relationships and feedback, not of individuals
That's also strongly in line with my own thinking. "Pathological" is a word I tend to use fairly frequently as well: <https://hn.algolia.com/?dateRange=all&page=0&prefix=false&qu...>. Eyeballing that search set, they're among my more interesting comments as well ;-)
Again, thanks.
I’d add another layer, though, which interacts with that dynamic rather than replacing it: entry barriers. For players from peripheral regions of the tennis ecosystem (e.g., South America), the climb is not only underfunded but structurally hostile — long travel distances, fewer high-value tournaments, language barriers, and competing almost permanently as the outsider. These factors affect who even gets a chance to reach escape velocity in the first place, and they’ve existed long before today’s prize-money explosion.
That raises a deeper question the article hints at but doesn’t fully address: what do we actually mean by fairness in elite sport?
Is it equal opportunity, or is it preserving a brutally selective system that produces exceptional performers?
There’s a real tension here. Some pressure is clearly wasteful — forcing talented players to play injured, burn out early, or leave the sport before they peak. But some pressure is also constitutive of excellence. Scarcity, risk, and high stakes shape psychology, decision-making, and competitive edge. A system with no tension doesn’t produce champions; a violin string without tension is out of tune.
So the problem may not be inequality per se, but which inequalities entrench incumbents versus which ones meaningfully select for performance. Reducing attrition that destroys talent before it matures is different from flattening the incentives and risks that keep the top level sharp.
For that reason, I’m not convinced the solution is primarily redistributive — “cutting the cake differently.” A more promising direction may be using the top tier to leverage the bottom tier: expanding global sponsorship, regional tournaments, media exposure, and off-court revenue opportunities that help more players reach viability without removing the competitive pressures that define elite tennis.
In other words, grow the cake and widen access to escape velocity — rather than trying to engineer fairness in a system whose excellence is partly forged by difficulty.
If you country hosts a grand slam Australia,Britain US, and France you can get some good prize money without winning a match.
Having the right flag beside your name removes lots of barriers
There's a nice experimental test of this where showing the number of previous downloads a song has makes it more likely to be downloaded (but not to the extent that it entirely overrides the quality of the song. <https://www.princeton.edu/~mjs3/salganik_dodds_watts06_full....>
Tennis players portion of total revenue is the lowest among major sports- 17.5% (https://tennishead.net/tennis-players-receive-smallest-reven...)
I wish there was more funding and support for players below the top 250 and not just in countries with strong central tennis academies.
Isn't that like Rule #1 from Systemantics, that systems grow to serve their perpetuation, not the features they were originally designed to supply?
Also, pournelle's iron law of bureaucracy
( disclaimer : I know nothing about football !)
Rosters have some restrictions in terms of size, in terms of home grown talent, talent from outside Europe, etc. There are also a ton of great football players out there. One team can't buy up all the talent, but a clique of elite teams can.
There is some concept of financial fair play too, but that still rewards bigger teams who are already rich.
There are probably studies written on this topic...
They found more success when they bought the best team i.e. the best players in each position. Winning in football is difficult enough that you still need great tactics, management, experience, and luck to have actual sustained success. Money helps buy a lot of that, though.
But beyond Real Madrid your point is correct. More and more money is aggregating at the top, especially the English Premier League, and others are getting left behind.
At the root - surely the same is true - top paid footballers likely pay (themselves or through the team) for top staff (physio, coaches, trainers) except substituting the resulting extension of dominance for whatever happens in that particular sport; whether growing older is more or less of a cost than in tennis.
What is interesting is that in a team sport, the money that Real Madrid makes is probably enough to hire top staff, which then applies to the whole team. (Players themselves may go above and beyond that.)
In tennis (simplifying) - there is no team, Federer gets all the money, Federer reinvests what he deems necessary into his own continued performance, expecting outsized benefits.
Now if the only benefit gained from being at the top is money, all that is necessary is outside funding of some sort to help punch your way into, and to extend your stay in the top 100. Would be curious if the two under 25s now dominating the scene are doing so on physicality, money, or more likely a blend of the two.
Essentially the article sort of describes the precarious-ness of being a top ~1000 player, having a very narrow period of time before finances fun out, or you age out (without the proper support structure, ex. get injured), before you start making the money necessary to fund staying in the sport at a high level. And I guess the argument is the sport would be more fair and balanced if ex. everyone who entered the top 1000 were able to get access to the support that the top 100 (or 10 as mentioned) have.
hooray for 4-year presidential terms