Tough week for Tesla. Nvidia is about to ship a competitive self-driving solution and Hyundai is putting a useful humanoid robot into production.
What claim will Elon make next to defend the stock price?
What claim will Elon make next to defend the stock price?
Manufactured (No pun intended) political outrage most likely. Seems to be the M.O for the last few years at least.
We don’t know the capabilities of either and how they match up against Tesla’s Optimus and FSD.
Needs more manipulation. Such elaborate fingers and all it does is mime carrying a box. There are some brief material handling demos at the end, but nothing challenging.
There's been considerable progress in robot manipulation in the past year, after many decades of very slow progress. This year's new manipulation demos have been for fixed base robot hands. Robot manipulation still isn't good enough for Amazon's bin picking. The best demo of 2025 is two robot hands opening a padlock with a key, with one hand holding the lock while the other uses the key.
We'll probably see this start to come together in 2026.
Thus far I see no evidence that robot manipulation will come together by 2036, let alone 2026.
https://www.pi.website/blog/pistar06 has some reasonable footage of making espresso drinks, folding cardboard boxes, etc.
That system, coupled to one of the humanoids for mobility, could be quite useful. A near term use case might be in CNC machining centers. CNC machine tools now work well enough on their own that some shops run them all night. They use replaceable cutting tools which are held in standard tool holders. Someone has to regularly replace the cutting tools with fresh ones, which limits how long you can run unattended. So a robot able to change tool holders during the night would be useful in production plants.
See [2], which is a US-based company that makes molds for injection molding, something the US supposedly doesn't do any more. They have people on day shift, but the machines run all night and on weekends. To do that, they have to have refrigerator-sized units with tools on turntables, and conveyors and stackers for workplace pallets. A humanoid robot might be simpler than all the support machinery required to feed the CNC machines for unattended operation.
There is literally no point in having a humanoid here. The primary reason you'd want a human here is that hiring a human to swap tools is extremely cost effective since they don't actually need to have any knowledge of operating the machines and just need to be trained on that one particular task.
A humanoid robot is significantly more complicated than any CNC. Even with multi-axis, tool change, and pallet feeding these CNC robots are simpler in both control and environment.
These robots don't produce a piece by thinking about how their tools will affect the piece, they produce it by cycling though fixed commands with all of the intelligence of the design determined by the manufacturer before the operations.
These are also highly controlled environments. The kind of things they have to detect and respond to are tool breakage, over torque, etc. And they respond to those mainly by picking a new tool.
The gulf between humanoid robotics in uncontrolled environments is vast even compared to advanced CNC machines like these (which are awesome). Uncontrolled robotics is a completely different domain, akin to solving computation in P by a rote algorithm, vs excellent approximations in NP by trained ML/heuristic methods. Like saying any sorting algorithm may be more complex than a SOTA LLM.
And even if it isn't just doing crazy intentional-seeming horror stuff, we're still a good ways off from passing the safely make a cup of coffee in a random house without burning it down or scalding the baby test.
Tesla’s R&D has been shit for years. The value it brings to the table is mass-manufacturing expertise.
Tesla can bomb the robot for a while. As long as it keeps its plants online, it can buy or partner with one of these guys with its manufacturing platform (and political connections).
Not a bullish case. But also not a death knell.
I don't see how that squares with the ramp-up and QC issues that are well-documented at this point.
They’re shipping. Nobody else is (in America) for battery electrics at that scale.
That doesn’t port perfectly to robotics. But it’s a good enough fit to give them, at the very least, a seat at every auction.
(Tesla also has cheap acquisition currency in its stock.)
Or Hyundai EVs breaking down 10x more often than worst ICE cars according to ADAS.
https://www.consumerreports.org/cars/car-reliability-owner-s...