Mapping Protests in Iran
fdd.org
fdd.org
I clicked through on the first news item I saw, "Security forces open fire on woman filming them."
This led to a post on X captioned 'Yasuj; "Firing a shotgun at a lady who was filming."'
The attached video[1] did not show a weapon. It appeared to show uniformed forces on motorbikes and some kind of muted firing sound.
A subsequent comment said: "Don't write the wrong text, it's marking with paintball so the operations team can arrest him. The sound of a shotgun is like this, don't give wrong information."
To be clear, this is not meant to defend security forces firing paintballs at or arresting people recording them, just calling into question the integrity of this particular claim suggesting lethal force, and the overall lack of support for the figures claimed.
https://iranwire.com/en/features/122471-crackdown-survivor-5...
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2025/12/31/armed-offi...
https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/press-release/2021/07/iran...
On the other hand the sudden collapse of the Assad regime in Syria shows these things sometimes do happen. But I don't think similar conditions exist in Iran. There seems to be a lot of anger but very little organized opposition. But there are some reasons to assume the regime might fracture internally where religious extremists and conservative but more pragmatic opportunists running e.g. the military part ways.
An Egyptian model might be more lucrative for those types where you get a kleptocratic elite getting more diplomatic about restoring international relationships in exchange for sanctions lifting and access to international markets to get filthy rich from the natural resources that Iran is currently sitting on. My impression is that the current unrest is caused by economics, not ideology. But a lot would need to change in Iran for this to happen. The poor health of Khamenei might trigger such a thing in the context of a wider leadership battle.
The issue is the Iranian elites are getting filthy rich from sanctions and have a vested interest in them.
The IRGC has its own smuggling networks and its own companies which it can use to evade taxes and sell its own imported goods for lower prices locally
Iranian here. I think we've been successful! After the Woman Life Freedom movement, there's a noticeable change on how government enforces hijab rules! Not because they don't want to force hijab and their religion on us, but because they know they can't do it like that anymore. They are scared! That's a big win in my book. I know it might not seem much but I believe it is! No big change happens in one day. I think what you refer to, is the "last" protest/movement before everything falls apart.
If you've been born into these freedoms that we're fighting so hard for, you've been through this process before; by your ancestors. It's hard to appreciate how difficult it is to achieve the smallest of wins. You're not ignorant, it's just difficult to comprehend if you're not in the midst of it.
I also think this should serve as a warning to people whose freedoms are being eroded in western world right now. If you loose them for good, This is the process for getting them back and this is the price you'll have to pay.
(Unfortunately most people completely ignore the SPIRITUAL dimension of things...)
Wishing you and your country positive outcomes.
Consider the bias that this can imply. This is not to give credence to either side, just that there are very strong partisans everywhere pushing specific agendas.
Some people are very passionate about problems in other countries, or just contributing to propaganda
fyi: FDD is funded by the US government, which probably means incentives the propaganda (e.g. to get promoted and so on)
> FDD conducts in-depth research, produces accurate and timely analyses, identifies illicit activities, and provides policy options – all with the aim of strengthening U.S. national security and reducing or eliminating threats posed by adversaries of the United States and other free nations.
https://www.thetimes.com/world/middle-east/article/iran-ayat...
Remember. The axis is quickly being diminished (venezuela), and the financial and water situations are far worse now, as is the political one (coming off of a war which destabilised leadership).
Just hope that it's not out of the frying pan and into the fire. I have a great appreciation of the everyday Iranian, and they deserve better.
It's genuinely gross what US/Israel is doing by co-opting real grievances against the Iranian government to push their own puppet to lord over Iran.
> "You have a very strong prime minister in Israel who is clearly on our side. I think that [US President Donald] Trump, unlike his predecessor, is definitely on a different path vis-à-vis what’s happening in Iran today. And you have Marco Rubio at the State Department. I believe he’s perhaps the first secretary of state ever since the Iranian revolution who truly gets it," Pahlavi said, praising the political echelons in both Jerusalem and Washington.
Sigh.
Feel like every submission that I see on HN which is even vaguely political just devolves into “America bad” and conspiracy theories. I honestly preferred the “AWS bad” meta over this
These sanctions a major reason for the protest, so they are largely legitimate. To archive regime change, mix in (paid) violent protesters with AK's and Molotov Cocktails and add a Truth Social Post like
> If Iran shots and violently kills peaceful protesters, which is their custom, the United States of America will come to their rescue. We are locked and loaded and ready to go. Thank you for your attention to this matter! President DONALD J.TRUMP
there is your regime change!