The only scenario where the risk is lower is if they won't get Covid at all. That is pretty unlikely given that it is an endemic disease.
A not insignificant number of people suffered from severe health issues from the covid vaccine alone.
The definition of what a vaccine is and the requirement for testing were relaxed to allow for what would otherwise have been regarded as immature to be included in the vaccine category, and has remained so since. It is therefore reasonable that the trust in vaccines had been impacted to some extent.