The Venezuelan Oil Narative Is Pure Theatre

If the author were correct, the remedy would require a full occupation, particularly including the least inhabited areas with the most difficult terrain. That being impracticable, we may not accept the author's postulates. The article is an example of whitewashing Ledeenism.

The article makes sense, but in a way it jumped over 1 thing.

The US has just as much as "rare" earths/minerals as China has, maybe even more. But getting these minerals is costly compared to China and other countries. The reason is environmental and labor.

Mining rare earths right now creates an environmental disaster in the area, land and water table destroyed. No community will let such a mine any where near them. And of course labor is far more expensive here.

So, maybe it is easier to put a puppet gov in place and allow mining companies wreak havoc in that country then trying to ramp up this type of mining in the US. Plus you get the benefit of large oil reserves.

But after seeing what happened in Iraq, I doubt even this will succeed.

This is far too simplistic. Yes there are some critical minerals and Russian and Chinese influence. But that's true in many countries. The Chinese are investing in infrastructure and mining all over the globe.

I think it's much simpler. Maduro became a fixation for Trump and the republicans mostly for ideological reasons. It's the same reason he rolled back normalization of relationships with Cuba under Obama. Venezuelan oil is critical to the Cuban economy. Cuban votes in Florida are important for republicans in Florida. Removing Maduro has many beneficial side effects at a very low cost. They might end up with fresh oil supplies, critical minerals, a more friendly regime, and it send a strong signal to countries like Panama, Cuba, and others that all are under a lot of pressure from Trump already. And they get to send back a lot of Venezuelan refugees.

The oil is probably not that critical. Over supply would actually be bad for US producers that are currently extracting at a relatively high cost. Investing in Venezuela sounds like a high risk type thing. The country has a history of revolutions. There's no guarantee that any investments today are worth anything in ten years. I doubt much will happen there.

This is about opportunism. Maduro was weak. Taking him out creates opportunities. Trump can score some points, send back some refugees, please oil companies, and put pressure on other countries in the region. I wouldn't credit him with any kind of long term strategy or vision. I don't think he actually cares what happens in ten years. And I don't think he cares about the significant international/diplomatic cost either. Some bridges were burned yesterday on that side. That might actually create problems elsewhere.

This has been planned since Trump's first stint, where he declared fentanyl to be a 'weapon of mass destruction', and Maduro to be a 'narco-terrorist' (never mind that the fentanyl comes from China via Mexico).

This was a new term at the time, shifting drugs from a police issue to a military one, and obviously trying to manufacture consent for military intervention.

But Trump wasn't re-elected in 2020 so the plan stalled for 5 years. Now it's back. The military didn't 'asses threats' or whatever other garbage this piece claims, this is long pre-meditated.

But, the oil story is not quite what it seems either. Sure Trump wants to get his hands on all that oil and other resources, that's probably the only part he understands (and 'bad hombres').

But far more important for the Pentagon and people with actual brains, is to thwart China's influence in America's 'sphere of influence'. Venezuela is literally America's backyard, and the last time that was severely violated by a peer power, it almost led to armageddon (Cuba).

The author blames interest in critical metals for the action.

Now, consider: Brazil has the second biggest known rare earth reserves in the World (second only to China). As a Brazilian, this scares me a bit.

Not sure I belive it, author says it's not because of oil because their oil infrastructure is bad, their rare earth infra is even worse, basically uncommercialized with no exports.

There is no concievable end game that put's the US ahead in any way, and right at this moment the constucted narative is unravelling faster then it can be spun. Did they realy bomb the tomb of chavez?, blow up empty shipping cans and the homes of some of the most oppresed people there? but somehow leave the entire Venezuelan governing aparatus intact. Nothing bieng proposed for how Venezuela will be carved up has a legal mechanism to be enacted with, the newly sworn in leader of Venezuela is defiant, "elections" are impossible, and just inserting another leader is essentialy impossible, so this theatrical production is very likely going to solidify resistance to American interests worldwide, and worse!, encourage every oportunistic "helper" that the US will need to put in front of the cameras. China has folded it's arms, India can't belive how unhinged the whole thing has gotten, Russia is happily playing every angle, and the fucking euros are actualy standing up saying that "this is a good , but totaly illegal and unjustifyable action" and wringing there hands while trump ridicules there selection for the peace prize. wild

>...Venezuela, it is essential to understand who actually makes decisions of this magnitude. In the American national security apparatus, the Pentagon does not await presidential direction on major military operations.

I don't believe that for a minute - that the pentagon just decided to attack Venezuela without asking Trump.

It seems to be a nonsense theory since Trump is well known to work hard for the benefit of his oil buddies, to get them business and opportunities.

As for Iraq, it was founded on WMD lies to give rich contracts to Vice President Dick Cheney's firm Halliburton.

> If this were purely about oil,

Is anyone that naive at this point? The majority of us have learned to realize that these things are not as simple as they are presented (either by conspiracy theorist, the media, a/o politicians.) Put another way, is anyone saying it was purely about oil?

We do know Trump likes playing offense. His favorite strategy? Put the defender on its heels and keep them there. That said, was the drugs issue a cover? Could be. But does any other drug exporting country want to take that chance?