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Given his 0/2 track record on targeted prosecutions I wonder what the chance is that Maduro wins in court. What the hell would happen then?

Deportation to el salvador of course. You really need to keep up.

A more important question is if he does get sentenced will Trump just pardon him https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c9qewln7912o

Does Maduro still have access to enough money to make the bribe? If not, he won't be getting a pardon.