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Comment by varjag | Hacker News Reader

Here's another prediction: the regime will fall, the invasion will prove breezy and popular among huge fraction of Venezuelans. Trump admin (which was hugely insecure about its actual strength) will be bolstered and do some really really stupid thing next.

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When was the last time America successfully conducted a regime change via military force? One that didn't result in a bloody civil war and hundreds of thousands dead?

Panama and Grenada probably fit that bill.

The question is whether the Venezuelan situation is more like those two, or more like Vietnam / Iraq / Afghanistan.

> the regime will fall, the invasion will prove breezy and popular among huge fraction of $CountryInvaded

When have we not heard this line? When has it even been true?

We always hear it, it's never true.

You are free to bookmark this and rub it in my face later.

Sure, though your prediction of "will prove breezy and popular" is something that takes years, or even a couple of decades to play out. e.g. Afghanistan, Iraq.

Be serious. Did you really scratch your head for years figuring if it was popular in Afghanistan and Iraq?

I am being serious, but I don't know if you are. Look at the long-term outcomes in those countries, how it played out.

It develops pretty quick now. If you follow the news you already start to glimpse that I was spot on and it sounds like you try to move the goalposts now. Don't worry tho I'll take the high road.

I'll repeat, we don't know the long term outcome yet. Years not hours are what matters. The track record is very poor.

> you try to move the goalposts now

I do not agree. Long-term outcomes are what matter to the ordinary people in these countries, regardless of what scores points for internet posters today. Guessing outcomes today is very premature.

> I was spot on ... I'll take the high road.

What a smug and self-contradicting statement. This is no longer a serious conversation, have a good day.

Notice how I said nothing about long-term outcomes yet you insist on arguing in those terms. Have a nice day.

What kind of non-long-term outcomes are worth looking at?

If you read the original comment I think he only cares about the effects on Trump, not on Venezuela. People in Venezuela will likely celebrate in the streets which will bolster Trump to keep doing stupid things. The backlash will come in a couple of years for the Venezuelan people and the world but then Trump will have been able to fuck up more things.

It was actually true in Iraq. The US received no resistance and rapidly captured the entire country ("Mission Accomplished").

The problems started after...

> The problems started after...

So it did not eventually "prove breezy".

I tend to agree with you. Venezuela is no beacon of freedom or prosperity and I think Maduro might prove even less popular than thought.

Maduro is very unpopular but a US occupation would be even less popular.

There is always a "rally round the flag" effect, to support the country - the country, not the leader - in the face of a foreign attack. It's not "Support Maduro or support USA". Those are not the options.

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