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Gnome is bringing global shortcuts AFAIK in the next stable version

Yeah but now everything's platform-specific. We'll have a KDE version, a Gnome version, a wlroots version, ...

I bet dollars-to-donuts it won't work with X11 apps

There's no reason it couldn't.

Yes there is; Xwayland won't support it.

So what? Xwayland doesn't support file selectors, but XDG has a portal that handles it fine.

I can’t speak to the GNOME side of things, but I’ve been enjoying global shortcuts on KDE Wayland for years now. No issues to report whatsoever.