> 'No of course you can't join us - we're organizing to fight you!'

If only this had a more complicated explanation than something akin to schoolyard drama.

> NATO largely stopped that by putting them under a common umbrella.

You're thinking of democratization, the end of imperialism, and the elimination of aggressive regimes. Helped along by the financial devastation caused by the war.

> I don't think Russia is broadly hostile to the world.

Sure, unless you listen to all of their broadly hostile rhetoric or are on a Malaysian or Azerbaijani airliner or something.

> This inevitably sets the stage for geopolitical conflict

This your way of saying Russia needs to cut undersea cables and invade neighbors?