Comment by voidfunc | Hacker News Reader

Comment by voidfunc | Hacker News Reader

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> I just really don't see a way that Russia takes any NATO territory without the entire thing being a psyop against NATO not responding via far-right isolationists, and we're not there yet, or as an assist to help China take Taiwan, which likely means world war, and we're all fucked.

I mean that's really the setup.

1. Get America to move towards a more isolationist setup / unwilling to help Europe or Taiwan. This is already in motion politically and via social media operations.

2. Get America stuck in a conflict with Iran. This is ramping up.

3. China takes Taiwan. Probably in the next 2-5 years.

4. Russia takes the Baltics and starts to carve further into Europe.

My further total crackpot theory on all of this is that most of this has been agreed upon by all the major powers involved.

1. Russia gets to claim over Europe in the future.

2. China gets Taiwan and control of Africa + APAC.

3. US gets control of North America and South America. This culminates in the annexation of Greenland once Russia takes Europe. This is the agreed upon transaction for America to back out of Russo-European affairs and China-Taiwan affairs. Canada and Mexico eventually are also merged into the US unwillingly but without any major allies left there isn't much to prevent it.

> 4. Russia takes the Baltics and starts to carve further into Europe.

They have chewed up their army and lost a navy to a country without ships. How will they fight another war?

Russia started the full scale invasion with 190 000 troops (out of 1 M total active military personnel). Today they have 700 000 deployed in Ukraine. Casualties are probably 200 000 killed and up to a 1 M injured. At the same time they now have 1.3 M total active military personnel. Estimate that 1/3 of the injured are bad enough that they aren’t effective as soldiers. That is 500k unrecoverable losses, and a military that is 300k larger, so they have recruited another 800k to be where they are today.

If they stop fighting actively, then it becomes easier to recruit again without mobilising. Give it a few years and they could have another go at some other location. They clearly don’t care about casualties. Maybe not against NATO, but Georgia, Azerbaijan etc. And so it could continue for a very long time.

”Oceania was at war with Eastasia: Oceania had always been at war with Eastasia.”

Citations for numbers from Claude, that are all best estimates.

In your mind what does a “Russian claim over Europe” mean. Do you really imagine a country with one third the population of the EU is going to dominate the EU + UK?

It's not about what we think, it is about what they think. They got away with it for 50+ years and they want that back.

Hispanics and Mexicans would slauther every gringo and if your annexation attempt for Latin America and Canada happened to occur, Cuba and Venezuela would got Chinese and Russian nuclear missiles in the spot. Canada would just call the French for a good nuclear missile set. Either the USA steps back, or California gets turned into dust.

Texas would already had seceded and turned into a neutral state in order to avoid further issues. And OFC several states bordering Canada and Mexico would secede too joining Canada and Mexico themselves in order to fight Washington and Nevada. Because that's the way to avoid being a nuclear target. Similar stuff would happen in Russia too with states becoming independent so they aren't a target from both Europe and the USA.

China would just stare there thinking on the good chunk of money would get post war. It would just declare neutral too a la Switzerland asking for diplomatic agreements between the two sides.

The most probable war today with Russia would be an small one in the Arctic because of oil/gas, totally irrelevant and with few casualities.

There are biggest protests in Iran in years & they lost a war with Israel recently - I don't see them being a problem in a long term & with a bit of luck their horrendous regime that regularly slaughters their own citizens might be gone.

The US somehow subjugating 180 million people is delusional. And tens of millions of current US citizens would probably side with Canada and Mexico.

<<side with Canada and Mexico>>

can confirm!

Those citizens can't even side with the US, why should they side with foreign countries?

Maybe they do side with the US, just not with its ‘leader’?

Thats what I meant. All I see from americans is apathy or feverish reverence for their leader. No american will intervene when the US government gives marching order towards Canada or Mexico.

US annexing Greenland is just an excuse for US to leave NATO, Trump or Vance might do it if Putin attacks Europe, and he will when China attacks Taiwan.

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