Xi Jinping Vows to Reunify China and Taiwan in New Year's Eve Speech
theguardian.com
theguardian.com
The deaths of a few million Taiwan people is not a big deal to ensure the future survival and stability of China and the CCP.
And there's plenty of other democratic countries to take examples from if they so desire.
And killing millions of people in another country to ensure a regime's survival is surely a big deal.
The survival of China and the CCP is the #1 goal, the deaths of a few million people isn't a big deal to achieve that goal.
But Taiwan is a threat indirectly. Chinese people, but with much more political freedom than in the mainland, and with more prosperity - that's a threat to the Communist Party's legitimacy as ruler of China, in the same way that Ukraine is a threat to Putin's rule of Russia. It's somebody just next door, with approximately the same people, who's doing much better and is much more free. It makes the Chinese and Russians start to get ideas that maybe they could have that, too.
And Taiwan is more directly a threat, because Xi has explicitly made reunification with Taiwan a measure of the legitimacy of the Chinese Communist Party. Xi's mouth made that problem, and now he can't back down without losing face.
> Are they willing to kill millions of people just to protect their own pride?
In a "face" culture? Yes, they may be.
They're certainly doing a lot better on human rights and democracy but I don't see that being a big point of contention in Chinese society.
Taiwan has critical tech and industry that is hard to replicate which china doesnt have access to but the west relies on.
So, if they take it peacefully they both grow in strength and weaken the rest of the world.
If they take it by force then they don't really lose much (barring nuclear exchanges) and cripple the rest of the world.
If the US intervenes then it's another discussion but depends on their military strenght calculations... They might want to fight conventionally the US outside their borders and get the US to give up like vietnam and win over their region by force...
That and historical reasons. If Xi pulls it off he's comparable to Mao.
If they take it by force, they will take a smoking hole in the ground where all that "critical tech" used to be.
If Xi pulls it off he's comparable to Mao.
Famous for getting tens of millions of his countrymen killed for no good reason?
Sure, but first, it's the rest of the world that loses it. With that tech manufacturing base gone, rest of the world might be forced to buy from china. China doesnt buy from Taiwan.
Second, people and documents will still be around similar to germany's rocket scientists, they can be put to work.
> Famous for getting tens of millions of his countrymen killed for no good reason?
Sure, that too. Dictators don't care about pople... (Putin is doing it too and if anything, killing your own people solidifies power...)
I was thinking more how he's perceived like some sort of deity by chinese people and was untouchable power wise.
There are plenty of other advanced chip fabs outside of Taiwan. The ignorati on HN like to talk shit about Intel, a fair bit of which is deserved, but they have the second most advanced fabs in the world. Samsung, I believe, has the third best.
They can't even take parts since they have different tooling... they're just starting to take 3rd party chips...
They're not weak or stupid, the level of retaliation and sabotage in store against any attempt by China to take over would go down in history as some of the most ruthless and savage of all time.
Xi is just beating his chest. China is currently simmering - protests, civil unrest, and dissidence in general is up significantly over the last year or so, and they need to make bold public speeches to look powerful and in control. I don't think there's any risk of widespread public revolt, but they play these games and push propaganda because they have to, not because it makes sense.
China's been threatening to "unify" Taiwan for decades, more or less like clockwork. They missed their best opportunity to actually do it during Biden and covid - the US would likely have just let it happen at that point. With new US fabs popping up, we may reach parity with Taiwan chipmaking capabilities within a decade or less, and that makes the utility of Taiwan even less.
Urban resistance fighters and guerilla tactics from a hostile population makes taking over cities and towns like that more or less completely impossible. Any attempt by China to take Taiwan would end up looking like the US trying to "liberate" Iraq, with constant PR hits, human rights violations, way more money than they want to spend, or risking inciting major unrest if they just wipe out the Taiwanese population like monsters.
I don't think there's any real upside to actually taking Taiwan, it's more useful as a perennial jingoistic narrative than anything else at this point.
"> multiple doomsday options..." - doomsday for whom exactly? China doesn't import anything vital from Taiwan but the West does. Both Taiwan and the West are dependent on China too.
Moreover, the Chinese have other options: sanctions, blockades, covert military, etc. the precedent has already been established with Venezuela.
If China disrupts Taiwan's fragile economy, the fabs will doomsday themselves and the West will go along with them.
> I don't think there's any real upside to actually taking Taiwan
You're thinking in terms of plunder but that's not how China thinks. China is being pressured economically and threatened militarily - Venezuela supplies oil to China, and the Chinese have investments there - Taiwan is just a pawn in a much bigger, existential game of survival.
All you have to do is compare rhetoric of leaders who invaded another country with what China has been saying.
depends on the US. If the US stations troops in Taiwan then this becomes a non starter.
If the US continues to be weak and foolish then you're right.
Xi isn't Putin and China isn't Russia. Politically they are different like day and night. The real reasons for Putin's invasion of Ukraine bear absolutely no similarity to anything pertaining to China-Taiwan's relations.
I know someone who has been predicting this invasion for the past 50 years, ever since Taiwan was kicked out of the UN.
This is like saying George Washington is only famous for his role in the Native American genocide.
Also, there is no big anti CCP sentiment in China. Most people are happy with it as weird as it seems to me.
The implication of this is that once they're done with Taiwan they'll come for other countries.
This isn't anything new either. The struggle between authoritarians and people who want to be free and autonomous in their day to day activities is eternal. We've made tremendous strides as a species to vanquish many kinds of authoritarians, with the last few centuries seeing the elimination of many monarchs.
With those victories over the old authoritarians we've seen the rise of new kinds of authoritarians -- people who call themselves fascists or communists.
Setting aside the minutiae of how closely their actions match those new labels they're no friends of mine and it is in our best interest to align the people who they intend to oppress be they in Taiwan or Ukraine.
It reminds me of the Falklands. Argentina should have invested in wooing the Falklanders who weren't getting much attention from the British then.
In 2022 everyone was saying that military industrial complex (MIC) was so strong in US, that Ukraine will be getting anything they want. Apparently MIC lobby is rather weak.
Peaceful reunification is not in the cards. It will be war or nothing and it ain’t gunna be nothing.
Defending can be done very efficiently with modern weaponry.
And Taiwan is more powerful than Ukraine potentially and more economically important.
Has he tried like golf or pickleball? Bro get a hobby.
There's one mention of Taiwan, in the eigth paragraph (of twelve).
"We Chinese on both sides of the Taiwan Strait share a bond of blood and kinship. The reunification of our motherland, a trend of the times, is unstoppable!"
I support an independent Taiwan, and given China's recent military exercises that encircled Taiwan, everyone's right to be cagey, but the speech itself doesn't focus on Taiwan, nor does it seem to escalate China's rhetoric.
To be fair, the Guardian article does provide the context of the military exercises, so I guess I'm complaining about the headline being overly alarming. A first in journalism, I'm sure /s.
"Not long ago, I attended the opening ceremony of the National Games, and I was glad to see Guangdong, Hong Kong and Macao coming together in unity and acting in unison. We should unswervingly implement the policy of One Country, Two Systems, and support Hong Kong and Macao in better integrating into the overall development of our country and maintaining long-term prosperity and stability. We Chinese on both sides of the Taiwan Strait share a bond of blood and kinship. The reunification of our motherland, a trend of the times, is unstoppable!"
Given the unrest and bad optics from Hong Kong, which was a gradual, negotiated transfer of power to China, I'm hoping that the threat of invasion remains just a threat. Soft power takes longer and is more easily contested. I think 2026 will determine if America's step back is a blip or the start of a trend. I wouldn't be surprised if China and other countries are waiting to determine the same.