Weather forecasts are a best-effort.

CEOs should have a reasonable grasp of what's possible for their team on a given short/medium timeline.

It won't be perfect but should be ballpark.

Elon and those like him make these statements with no reference to realistic project delivery timelines, business capacity or anything else - despite having all of that information readily available.

That's not a best guess, it's making shit up.

If the input to the weather forecast is mostly /dev/random, then yes, that is called a lie. There is a very big difference between modelling chaotic systems and providing random noise.