Travel agents took 10 years to collapse. Developers are 3 years in | Hacker News Reader

Travel agents took 10 years to collapse. Developers are 3 years in

martinalderson.com

18 pointsmartinald31 comments

> We're at ~2.5 years since the release of GPT-4 (the first model that could really attempt to code on any serious level) and LLM usage is >40% of the entire US population.

Sure, if you count "Google forced an AI-generated overview into my search, and I clicked on 'read more' once." as LLM usage.

> Even more astoundingly, according to the Stack Overflow developer survey LLM adoption in software engineering went from 0% in 2022 to 84% (!) in 2025

This simply isn't true. The 84% is for "using or planning to use AI tools in their development process". That's not about LLMs, not specifically about software engineering, and not even a "currently using"! Look at something like "Yes, I use AI agents at work daily" and the real figure is closer to 14%. So how do people use it? Not to write anything, but primarily as a search engine!

I don't doubt that AI is going to change software development. But let's be real about it: they aren't going to collapse the software developer industry any more than the invention of the microwave collapsed the restaurant industry.

> If your job is to translate requirements into code manually - and that's it - you're the generalist travel agent.

I’ve been a full-stack web programmer at five different companies over the last fifteen years, big and small, e-commerce and B2B, junior to senior to staff, and that has never fully described my responsibilities.

Which responsibilities do you figure are a combination of highly valuable in your role, and resistant to automation?

Knowing what to implement, and having the social skills to perform various tasks in a company?

I've been unable to convince any "businessy" or liberal arts people to vibe code. I've attempted with everyone in my immediate family, friends, etc. Even when they sit on the computer and watch the AI type out a script for them that saves them hours/day, they get an "ick" factor that prevents them from trying again.

They'd rather ask me to talk to the AI for them and pay me money to do so. Heck one of my cousins offered me $5 to edit a photo with AI tools? It's a 1000% markup for clicking 4 buttons.

I can't square this with the alleged tidal wave of non-tech people replacing SWEs with AI. Non-tech people largely refuse to use the technology right in front of them to improve their productivity. They'd rather ask me to spend 20 seconds on a task and pay me to do so.

More likely than an SWE crash is an SWE dispersal. Lots of non-tech fields have automation opportunities that haven't been seized upon since one can make $500k risk free in FAANG.

If that goes away, I'd start a consulting business and ruthlessly automate Excel-based business processes with AI coding agents.

It takes me half an hour to vibe code a proof of concept web scraper and immediately demonstrate value to someone now willing to throw money at me to maintain it for them at insane profit margins since I've replaced a human repeatedly clicking on things.

Do you remember when travel agents were still around? Most people would absolutely never even consider using their computer to book a ticket. It was nearly 2010 before I could convince my mother to enter her credit card for Amazon. Just because someone isn't interested in vibe coding today doesn't mean they won't be using similar most polished tools in the very near future.

And yet many people would rather use Expedia or Google than buy the flights directly.

I’ve seen experienced software developers make impressive stuff with AI. I haven’t seen anything interesting made with AI by non-developers. They make a landing page or something. It’s just… barely anything. It’s a nothing of a project.

We use AI a lot at work, and the developers are vastly better at getting AI to do what we need than the non-developers. AI is a tool, and like any tool, it takes effort to learn how to use it effectively. And so far, the skills to use AI effectively are something I’ve only seen in software developers.

I don’t think product people are going to replace devs. Ever. I agree that I think a dispersal is more likely than an outright crash.

>Opus 4.5 has really startled me - it genuinely can do complex software engineering tasks which I'd expect a proficient developer to take hours in minutes with very few defects.

I don't use Opus, but I use Sonnet 4.5 and ChatGpt 5.1, which are only a bit down the chart.

in my daily experience, these tools can help with many tasks - scaffolding crud, writing tests, explaining how this or that part of the code works, are three that come to mind.

But a mature piece of software has usually graduated to a point that it has numerous subsystems, layers and integrations that crosstalk with each other in often hacky ways. And my work is smack dab inth middle of that. Writing a feature or fixing a bug in that soup, I have found, is something that the best AIs will slow you down with as often as they speed you up.

And that doesn't even take into consideration that a very large part of my job is just defining what the bug or feature is, before I can even begin to code. And when I'm done with the coding, lets keep in mind the fun, time consuming processes known as "code review" and "deploy to customer"

I don't think the benchmarks catch this very well. Opus 4.5 is _significantly_ better than Sonnet 4.5 in my experience, far more than the SWE Bench scores would say. I can happily leave Opus 4.5 running for 20-30 minutes and come back to very high quality software on complex tasks/refactoring. Sonnet 4.5 would fall over within a couple of minutes on these tasks.

What does "very high quality" mean here

A spicy hypothesis that SWEs net-output from a business process standpoint is comparable to a 1970s travel agents.

It is clear top executives share his perspective given the massive layoffs. But survival is a marathon not a sprint, and there’s a lot of race left to run.

From the home page of the website.

> I also teach workshops on AI development for engineering teams

So yet another article playing on FOMO about how urgent it is to get in tune with LLM usage written by someone who teaches how to use LLM.

OP started blogging in August and AI appears to have a heavy role in the writing process. In a cool world mods would just ban the domain.

Yep. I’m bored. These people have nothing to offer and nothing to say.

You guys remember HN from 2010, back when all software devs in the US and the EU would be out of job due to outsourcing?

It's incredible that 15 years later, all software devs still have a job, but this time they're going to be out of job due to AI.

Let me guess: in 15 years software devs are going to be fine but they'll all be out of their job soon because of, dunno, quantum computing maybe?

> all software devs still have a job

As far as I can tell from comments on this site, that is far from reality. It's a tough market right now.

Impossible. The labor floodgates are still wide open and we're told there's still a critical shortage of developers. The government must help industry obtain in whatever numbers they desire, in any manner possible, until this critical shortage is gone.

> US agents fell from 132,000 to 74,000, retail locations from 34,000 to 13,000, total jobs down 70% by 2021

What does the author mean by total jobs? 132k > 74k is -44%.

Good catch, bad wording from me. Revised on the post.

I remember using travel agents in the 1990s. Maybe it was just the particular ones I dealt with, but the experience was terrible. I was supposed to tell them what I wanted, they would look it up, and then I'd write them a check for whatever amount they told me it would cost. Then along came the internet portals where you could easily see all of your options/prices, without a single sigh from a travel agent. To my knowledge, software developers have little in common with that industry.

Yeah by the 90s the travel agents had metastasized into a middle man. The airlines saw them as a necessary evil because they made bookings appear automatically in SABRE to fill up their planes without having to do any customer outreach or support.

From the perspective of the customer you were a lamb to the slaughter. They could find you the best option, or they could just sell you the itinerary that made them the biggest commission. Finding an honest travel agent was a bit like finding an honest stock broker or car salesman.

Airlines putting their availability online was easy (it was already digitized) and they didn't really have much reason not to do it. They had little loyalty to the agents, and from their perspective a booking coming through priceline was no different than a booking coming from an agent. Customer satisfaction was higher because the customer felt like they had more control and transparency.

Off topic, but I’d love a good travel agent: someone who would help me cut through all the SEO and slop reviews to find the good hotels, tours, etc., and take care of booking and logistics.

We’ve used some location-specific agencies that have been really good to work with, but you first have to find them. I’d happily pay a premium to someone who would work globally. Do such things exist?

You can still hire personal assistants to do grunt work like that

But how are you ever going to find a halfway-competent personal assistant for the occasional bounded task like that?

I need someone to spend a few days every couple of years to plan a holiday, not someone who is available several hours a day to read my emails for me.

Resourceful people who can read quickly are similarly competent at both of these tasks.

A friend started that type of business in my country a few years ago (end covid): she is pretty successful and I gave her a chance for a trip I am on now. It mostly exposed how absolutely terrible everyone seems to be at this: she did absolutely lazy work I could have done fast(er) and better myself (usually do and will do again), but, seeing her other clients, including a friend, it seems most people are just really bad at it, far worse than she is (or wants to spend time on I guess).

There is a subset of society who assumes by default people are good at their titles.

Don’t ask me how those people are still being born, it don’t make a ton of sense to me.

If it's not niche service, it won't be what you are looking for. The best thing is to search for "my travel destination travel agent" and find a local company which is not overly difficult. I have friends who did not even think anybody booked a major trip in a different way than that. There are also travel agents who work in many locations, but specialize in a specific type of trip like adventure/extreme trips etc. It's a different fit though, they can't know each area as well as a local agent.

Sure, just stumble through SEO and reviews to find them!

Click bait at best. AI slop at worst.

The only thing 3 years in to a collapse are low effort blogs like this.

Reply on news.ycombinator.com