Polymarket has me intrigued though. Especially stuff like their geopolitics section...as a measure of how good one's read of the world is. Still gambling in disguise though
I think the folks who get addicted must have much lower loss aversion and higher thrill-seeking. People like me can’t become even regular recreational gamblers (betting small amounts without ruining their lives) because it’s too frustrating.
There are many ways to obtain such an edge, and the casinos are highly motivated to prevent that from happening.
Contrast that to normal "sports betting" - which aims to block skilled betters, and squeeze suckers for their cash.
That's why Kalshi/Polymarket don't care about winners, they don't lose money to them, others do.
It's all gambling, as most of day trading also is.
That topic had over a 10% “yes” chance in January. Betting no on that is better taking out a CD.
Not because he doesn't do insane things, obviously, the market is just not at all good at pricing it.
To be fair, we don't need to find little green men in a UFO. It's sufficient to e.g. find fossils of extinct microorganisms on Mars, which is a slim possibility that's a goal of the Mars Sample Return mission.
These markets also have low volume at reasonable prices. If you bought $10K of "no" right now for next year, you would only get an 8% return, not 10%. You could execute better trades to get better prices, but the odds also become more sane over the year. The S&P 500 is also up 18% YTD (13% YoY for the last 5) and you can buy as much of that as you want.
To your last point, I'd argue that the S&P 500 has way more risk. Bets for insane stuff like this where a sufficient number of morons are believers in the obviously-not-going-to-happen outcome are the ones that act like CDs.
Being addicted is not an intelligence criterion because every human is addicted to something -good or bad.
That's actually a basic principle of how we function cognitively.
- https://psychiatryofscottsdale.com/psychiatrists-honest-take...
- https://psychiatryofscottsdale.com/were-all-addicted-to-some...
Smart people will treat it like any other “trading” or “arbitrage” opportunity, given half a chance.
I like betting myself, but I don't think abstaining from betting is maladaptive at all. Most of the bets we encounter in the real world are negative EV.
> Most of the bets we encounter in the real world are negative EV.
Yeah that's why I don't like betting. It feels not smart, for me especially. But people who make the right bets can make very large otherwise unrealizable gains.
I do think there are positive EV bets to be had on prediction markets though, they are mosty not efficient.
It isn't to chase a couple of bucks either. Billy Walter has made hundreds of millions. A recent court case leaked that Tony Bloom's syndicate was making £200m in profit per year. This activity helps make these markets more efficient.
There is nothing wrong with gambling. Fast food kills tens of thousands a year in the US, hundreds of billions spent on healthcare and life expectancy is still terrible because of obesity. Should we ban fast food? Why? Many other people don't have a problme. The idea of personal responsibility will always be completely abhorrent to some part of the population.
This isn’t all that different from alcohol.
Most states have self-exclude/no-market lists, most states require links to gambling addiction helplines in adverts and within product, responsible gaming features are required in every state de facto (and providers are going beyond this in reality) so this is deposit/wager/loss/time limits, reality checks have effectively become mandatory, some states have hard limits on total wagers or require ACK over limit, deposit alerts are also moving to mandatory, there are limits on some kind of machines and how they operate (this is a massive difference to casino gambling, IGT designed physical machines that only appealed to addicts, that experience can now be 100% controlled online), etc.
I don't think people are aware that state regulatory bodies exist and are doing a huge amount. If you compare with European countries, I would say that providers are probably more aware of their responsible gaming function (afaik, many providers have responsible gaming goals that impact board-level compensation, so in the past year you had providers blanket limiting customers based on certain categories...which, I will add, is not an ideal approach, no regulator asked them to do this). In addition, there are some aspects of regulation that, afaik, don't happen anywhere else: for example, most state regulators are checking code that providers are deploying to ensure it is compliant.
This change in regulatory approach is largely a function of things moving online. To be blunt, when Adelson died then the old approach of functionally limited regulation was over because no-one was being paid to advocate for it. Online gaming also enables far more controls over the experience i.e. you can enforce hard limits (as opposed to a pit boss telling someone to stop). I can only assume that most people are completely unaware that this is happening though.
The difference with Polymarket and co, which are regulated as financial firms, should be quite obvious too. People are gambling on their site, they are doing none of the above.
The idea of personal responsibility is also way overrated by some part of the population like you, gambling is addictive and a net negative to society. Problem gamblers ruin not only their life but of their families as well, it's an addiction with a very high rate of suicide.
Allowing it to be done through your phone is like supplying opioids at the candy store. Not everyone gets addicted but you certainly increase access to the ones in most danger of becoming one, and for what purpose?
Personal responsibility doesn't ever solve systemic issues, you are defending the increase of a systemic issue and blaming the victims which it's the actual abhorrent thing...
The purpose is that gambling is fun. That is it. Eating fast food is fun. Drinking alcohol is fun. There are people who are addicting to shopping, so we can ban that too? It is a net negative to you (again, the classic contradiction: YOU believe gambling is wrong so you characterise it is a society wide problem...individual agency doesn't exist though? everyone agrees with something because YOU think it) because you don't enjoy it. It is like saying food consumption is a net negative because it is a sunk cost...in reality, people enjoy eating food, they will spend money on food that is more expensive than basic sustenance for enjoyment, and people enjoy gambling because it is entertaining. No crazy theories required, it is fun, people should be allowed to have fun.
Also, they supply very addictive things at the candy store...candy. Not everyone gets addicted, but you think we should also ban them? Eating candy is clearly a systemic issue, right? Nothing to do with personal feelings, it is a systemic issue with insufficient government intervention in the supply of candy. Candy exists, and for what purpose? Lol, it is like talking to a robot.
Because there is no systemic issue. You are saying that people are just mindless drones who have no control over their actions. Again, ban gambling therapy...must be completely pointless? There is nothing that anyone can do?
No victims are being blamed, I just don't have the arrogance to call people who do something I don't like or behave in a way that I wouldn't a "victim". They aren't victims. Gambling addiction will exist no matter how much we ban, there are gambling addicts in your paradise of Saudi Arabia, and they get no help because they live within a system that denies individual agency replacing it with religious agency. Some things are addictive, those things can also be enjoyable to other people without harm, it is okay for people to enjoy things that aren't enjoyed by other people, it is okay to have fun.
"Regulate" fast food...how? So the government is responsible for deciding how someone of normal weight is allowed to eat? Btw, I live somewhere where this has happened...I pay 30-40% more for some types of food, some products have been removed totally, they don't sell them anymore...why? I am healthy, I run, what did I do? The narrative for this was that obesity is a societal problem, that anyone can be obese...which is false. I am just paying more because someone else is obese, that is it (and, obviously, this hasn't changed obesity...the government has just unlocked a new source of revenue to spend on nonsense).
It is easy to regulate gambling, which the US does btw, because the experience is controlled. So you can remove products, unlike with fast food, that are explicitly designed for addicts (for example, many countries have regulations that rank casino/machine/slots gambling into categories). And in many countries, again like the US, you have government-maintained self-exclude lists, no-market lists, etc. Again, this only impacts addicts. The problem is that people who want regulation want to go further, they have these bizarre notions of economic efficiency with embedded social norms they don't appear to acknowledge, and (ultimately) this will impact people who just enjoy gambling. The premise of the original point was that gambling is inherently addictive...this is not the case, it isn't infallibility...some people find this activity fun, they should be allowed to have fun even if some other people shouldn't do it.