Next big buzzword: Pre-commerce | Hacker News Reader

Next big buzzword: Pre-commerce

yongfook.com

33 pointslrock19 comments

So by putting your own label on something that everyone knows is a "Big Thing" (kickstarter) you hope to create a self-fulfilling prophesy that it will become a buzzword, which you can then use to crow about how you predicted it, possibly even fuelling some speaking engagements.

Vacuous blog syndication at it's finest.

Total buzzdibbing.

To me, Kickstarter is just one example (or execution) of pre-commerce. I think there was a post on techcrunch recently about this too: Kickstarter is just scratching the surface. Vertical integration is the next step (think Quirky.com) that more startups will/should try.

Sounds like a rewording of vapourware, big in the 90's games areana.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vaporware

I therefore predict the next buzzword to be buzzocks, when somebody tries to make a new buzzword and overloads the talk variable :).

This is similar to what Tim Ferriss describes in 4-Hour Workweek. He'd create one-page microsites (similar to what Launchrock offers nowadays), buy up proper domains, and then test his product idea by purchasing search engine ads.

Not only could he iterate on product idea by tweaking the search ads and reacting to CTR changes, but visitors to the sites were advised to leave their email, so by the time the product was ready to launch, he'd have a great opt-in list.

"One example of how an MVP can manifest is dummy landing pages."

This is not a minimum viable product, it is a minimum viable ad. A product implies you have actually built something. Please do not belittle the act of actually building something any more than it already is.

Pre-Selling http://mixergy.com/sam-ovens-snapinspect-interview/

Pre-Commerce : Production = Derivative : Hedge Fund

Draw your conclusions.

Could you expand on that please? It's not clear to me what your pseudo-equation means, and therefore I don't understand the reasoning behind it.

I believe that it's supposed to be read as Pre-Commerce is to Production as Derivatives are to a Hedge Funds.

Although I could be wrong, as even considering that interpretation I am not sure what point the GP was trying to make.

'In simple terms, pre-commerce is “buying stuff that doesn’t exist yet”. In more grown-up words, it’s a framework for companies to cheaply establish market demand for a new product idea and acquire the cash flow to produce it.'

[OP]

'Reported earnings on derivatives are often wildly overstated. That’s because today’s earnings are in a significant way based on estimates whose inaccuracy may not be exposed for many years. The errors usually reflect the human tendency to take an optimistic view of one’s commitments. But the parties to derivatives also have enormous incentives to cheat in accounting for them. Those who trade derivatives are usually paid, in whole or part, on “earnings” calculated by mark-to-market accounting. But often there is no real market, and “mark-to-model” is utilized. This substitution can bring on large-scale mischief. As a general rule, contracts involving multiple reference items and distant settlement dates increase the opportunities for counter-parties to use fanciful assumptions. The two parties to the contract might well use differing models allowing both to show substantial profits for many years. In extreme cases, mark-to-model degenerates into what I would call mark-to-myth.'

[http://www.fintools.com/docs/Warren%20Buffet%20on%20Derivati...]

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When you make assumptions concerning something's value with no concrete immediate exchange of the goods you are valuing [simply put, you are finalizing transactions for things you are not shipping], you are in fact delaying market's feedback and the possible negative consequences this latter can produce to your assets. By employing Pre-Commerce in your model, you are not getting early feedback. You are just betting you will be able to provide in the near future the value you are paid for right now, and you are selling to your customers a burden-share of risks, along with the product you offer. Sure in some occasions you will be able to meet your users' expectations. But if and when you won't, bad things will hit you [and your company] with much greater impacts.

Thank you, that makes much more sense.

In theory this sounds interesting, but it runs up against a fundamental difference between startups and more mature organizations. Startups embrace failure and accept change; mature organizations reject failure and fight change. Therefore to give power to the consumer in this manner is simply not feasible for a major brand that is invested in its existing research and development programs. Outside of the one off marketing stunt, this mode of commerce will only exist in the fringes and by smaller, independent creators geared towards bespoke development.

this has been around for quite some time. why do you think some infomercials offer products that won't ship for 2 months? kick starter has just made it more obvious that it is a presale.

Call me a special little snowflake, but why is he eating in the photo? I have a hard time taking the article seriously with a profile pic like that.

Anyone else feel it's a distracting photo, and perhaps even disrespectful to the reader?

He's blogged a lot about food & recipes in the past. Built and sold a recipe site. It's his personal blog so I guess he can put whatever he wants on it?

Ah, that explains it. And yes, unless he lives in North Korea, he can do whatever he wants.

My apology to the author of the post. If I knew about the recipe sites I would have never questioned it.

Thanks for the feedback... never thought it would be taken as disrespectful!

Might change it, not in love with that photo.

But yes as another poster said, I have a history with internet+cooking.

Yeah, I found it off-putting and I wasn't as receptive to your message after that.

But then again, I did say I'm a special snowflake. It could very well be only me who is off-putting and has the problem.

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