What's causing populism around the world? It's the Internet Stupid (Fukuyama) | Hacker News Reader

What's causing populism around the world? It's the Internet Stupid (Fukuyama)

persuasion.community

10 pointsmfkhalil41 comments

The fact that most countries are ruled by machine politicians who know more about each other than the populace they rule. Populists speak about things the masses want to hear addressed without necessarily providing the appropriate answers.

What folks like Fukuyama don't get is that this situation was predicted in the 1960-1970 time frame and looking back seems fated, inevitable.

1962 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Image:_A_Guide_to_Pseudo-e... predicts that television performers will eventually overtake and outclass conventional politicians

1964 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Understanding_Media Marshall McLuhan predicts that 'television' will displace the 'Gutenberg Galaxy' of print but it could do it in the form of ABC/NBC/CBS but take the same (physically, later functionally) screen attached to an image synthesizer and versatile communication network and you get YouTube, which does.

1971 The Information Machines: Their Impact on Men and the Media by Ben Bagdikian reports on studies at the RAND corporation predicting that something like the WWW would come online in the early 1980s -- and technically it did in the form of services like Compuserve and The Source. Bagdikian pitched this vision to leaders in the media industry and was roundly rejected and was the origin story that led to his famous https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ben_Bagdikian#The_Media_Monopo...

In the 1970-1995 period the development of communication networks lagged behind all predictions because incumbents didn't want to make investments -- had they done so, Google, Facebook, Amazon and such would have been strangled in their cribs. The WWW seemed to take over so fast because it was actually delayed ten years and the technology to realize it had been sitting around latent and underutilized.

1975 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Legitimation_Crisis_(book) by Jürgen Habermas outlines a conflict between "expertise required to make decisions concerning complex science and technology" and "public participation" that he sees no way to resolve.

---------------

The "legitimation crisis" is the immediate crisis that Fukuyama sees, but connected to it is a long term breakdown in community pointed out by the likes of Nisbet and Putnam which manifests as a breakdown in household formation. We're pressing the panic button right now to save children who are halfway through school but... boy we are in trouble.

> The WWW seemed to take over so fast because it was actually delayed ten years and the technology to realize it had been sitting around latent and underutilized.

Not so sure about this point: IIRC modem development was going on in a big way during the initial growth phase of the WWW?

Thanks for the pointer to "Legitimation Crisis"; 'a conflict between "expertise required to make decisions concerning complex science and technology" and "public participation"' sounds like the fundamental problem of anarchism as well.

As for household formation, I think the root lies deeper: take a look at "Democracy in America": https://www.gutenberg.org/files/815/815-h/815-h.htm#link2HCH... ; my experience has been that the voluntary associations described (thus forming a "felt", not a "fabric" of society) are way more alive on this continent than I recall them being, back across the Atlantic in the Old World of America.

https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/Legitimation-crisis-%E...

https://archive.ph/2025.12.29-080655/https://www.independent...

("Taxes & Loyalty")

Does it get more anarchic with age? https://www.rsm.global/switzerland/en/service/tax-and-legal/...

Think about the "legitimation crisis" through the narcissism lens? Radio (and somewhat WWW up till fiber-era postMaBell) suffered no "legitimation crisis" because it is non-narcissistic ("Goldmund")? See other thread.

What would be the regulatory trajectory of "Co(s)mically narcissistic tech"

Eg nuclear fusion in MMM, rnatech in XXX..

Charitably to PH (:), I would consider mechanosynthesis co(s)mically narcissistic

For CH, managed narcissistic aspect of guns without going through LC?

https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/1pd8eea/swiss_se...

(I was once chatting with a swiss lawyer, and asked if he were familiar with the concept of "venue shopping". He pointed out the 26 cantons[0] and asked if he needed to proceed any further?)

("Welfare & Steering": JH's 1973 "relative success of the welfare-state compromise" may be a bit dated? I get the impression that ever since 1980, and distinctly accelerating since 1992, the Old Country's politics has, on average, been reducing both outputs: welfare and steering)

For CH, I think https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KjlT4BME2aE and https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jgYJ5V2HYy4 captured the difference in vibe well. (one detail SwissBloke didn't go into the weeds on: the army asks dozens of people to leave each year, on grounds largely ranging from far left extremism through fundamentalist islamic extremism to far right extremism, and a consequence of that is that one has to return one's service rifle. Part of having a hunting license[1] is being a member of a hunting club, and presumably they too will kick you out should you start to seem too crazy to associate with)

[0] it'd be a bit more difficult to game, but as far as gun ownership by foreigners is concerned, it's max(home country, CH), so there could be up to 195 potential venues involved, and I have the distinct impression that, having come from the States, I would have only hit the limit at local[2] law.

[1] another example of difference in vibe: in the US, folks complain bitterly if the exam for a hunting license takes more than 1 day; in my old part of CH, the process took 2 years, involving classroom time, community service, and practical, written, and oral tests.

[2] the cantonal police got a call about an old nutter in my first few years here. I was impressed, because apparently they just went out, talked with him, and left him all his legal weaponry, but took the full auto weapons, grenades, and other explosives with them when they left. I imagine in the Old Country that kind of visit might've been closer to a Waco?

Reflection: there's the societal vibe difference, and then there's not having an expansively interpreted 2A. Our constitution dates all the way back to 1999, because we believe in cleaning up the legacy cruft.

Moore on reducing welfare and steering: https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcRZj7bq...

I wonder how much [theory vs practice] of CH policy moves the average vibe around guns towards an Aristotelian mean (compared to the US)

It's common to compare shooting at a range to meditation?

I don't know about common, but meditators and rifle shooters both:

- relax their muscles and search stillness

- maintain awareness of their breathing and heart beats

- focus without letting their minds wander

so there are definitely parallels!

(on theory vs practice, I have a minor comment that can wait for a thread with some PH participation)

Fwiw I'm quite alright at (low calibre) rifles & terrible at meditation..

(I do wonder at, say, Hunter S. Thompson's skill level, which is where I'd guess the median gun rights vocalist would be at --to ask Gemini later)

am myself curious at how PH would answer your death / Kohut questions, amen on squatting.

Hmm... I'm a relatively poor shot, and I've never tried meditation myself, only listened to people talking about it, so maybe I should retract that. What would you say the major differences are?

(might you see more of a parallel between ice climbing and meditation?)

To your kind of meditation, yes!

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=41326474

To Fehmi's (& what I called "meditation"(/"prana-bindu") above, to be investigated..

Happy 2026!

Ps presumably your dad was with the Navy?

Have an excellent 2026! (and a good slide in, on the slim chance it's not too late for you)

PS the US Navy (although its final cause is instrument of empire) is one of the easier ways for a young man with little cultural capital and even less economic capital to find himself in an organisation that not only values lifetime learning but even goes out of its way to support it.

In ("cultural") theory, USMC, being "integrated", should have an advantage over USN but in practice(, putting sentients together in a confined space .. :)?

In theory, https://ru.wikipedia.org/wiki/Кот_Матроскин was surprising to Fedya's mother because he knew how to sew. But of course he does, because on a cruise one can't just run into town in order to get something done by someone else; it's not just his striped pattern that makes him resemble a sailor: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uncle_Fedya,_His_Dog,_and_His_...

Немцы думают стоя, англичане-- сидя, а русские-- потом

https://winstonchurchill.hillsdale.edu/americans-will-always...

(That was not to imply that I have firsthand familiarity with iceclimbing; I was just wildly extrapolating from rock climbing and friends')

The major diff is paying attention to external (nontactile) sensations perhaps?

ice climbing is way more meditative than rock!

(because (a) crampons mean you get to study the ice and make your holds, instead of rapidly making use of what's there, and (b) the process of making them takes time... I was very pleasantly surprised; I'd expected it to be more thrilling and above all „Besonders Im Winter Arsch-Kalt“ but it was actually relatively low-adrenaline and high-activity)

Gemini: Hunter Thompson "milks the trigger", "drugs+guns"

Any high-adrenaline meditative sport (:) to recommemd (besides fencing, I found that too un-meditative but then again that could be a skill issue)

Never tried it myself, but this Gracie interview (7:30-8:32) makes it sound as if Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu (at least with enough skill) could be high-adrenaline meditative:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LdRIBYw6kNQ&t=450s

(also 9:00-9:15. I believe what's happening here is that Gracie calls the end result, but he has multiple paths to get there; the interviewee defends against one path, and Gracie, like water, just "flows with the go" along another path)

I thought you were gonna bring up "Poker"

In my world, things that you can do while drinking and smoking are not sports, but past-times.

Henry VIII would like to have a chat

Linebarger on "legitimation crises" and their alternatives (in the context of ending hot wars): https://www.gutenberg.org/files/48612/48612-h/48612-h.htm#:~...

Ah wonder if the confederate train was meant to evoke Germany's rail-themed legitimation crisis (getting the hot war rolling)

Given that a large part of the subtext (Linebarger* does implore us to habitually analyse all communication as if it might be propaganda) in Psychological Warfare is that "hey, it might really be better if the US Army didn't practice apartheid" (finally ended in practice ca. the 6.25 전쟁), I'd bet the confederate train was supposed to evoke the US Civil War.

(let's stay silent about: "...the new organization is simply the old one under a slightly different name, but with the old leaders and the old ideas still prevailing.")

* might this be why he seems to have been replaced at Bragg with a very powerpoint-y kind of textbook?

Okay I feel i'd said something stupid ---about the train--- without knowing what or why :)

I had a notion that, compared to the US military, it was the Civilian Enforcers that practise apartheid-- ~a decade ago, not sure about now, they forced a black admiral to retire weeks back? Then again I was surprised that I was surprised at the inflation in NYC since the start of the pandemic

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/12/12/us/politics/admiral-alvin...

I think that notion is largely true: the military started desegregating in 1948[0]; the Civilian Enforcers not until decades later[1]. (I'd believe, recent purges notwithstanding, that the military has successfully integrated[2]; civilian society apparently ... not as much as one might have hoped, 160 years after Reconstruction[3]?)

I'm not surprised at the inflation: USD has crashed by ~20% against CHF since last year[4], so it makes sense that less real value would show up in domestic prices.

[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Executive_Order_9981

[1] eg https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Civil_Rights_Act_of_1968

[2] eg I believe if it were up to career officers, US Fort Bragg would not currently be named after a CSA general

EDIT: my bad, Bragg has been retconned to refer to US PFC Roland L. Bragg instead of CSA Gen Braxton Bragg

[3] the really silly thing is that Reconstruction seems to have been thrown in the trash in order to buy southern support for WWI, yet unlike the other major XX unpleasantry, the US participation in and effect upon that conflict was minimal

[4] I lay the blame squarely on US domestic policies; others may differ...

What have you recently learnt from Psychological Warfare that you think scholars don't get?

Do scholars even read it?

I guess:

- (a) propaganda/psyop/marketing/engagement farming may not be as old as the hills, but it's close: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=39994449 (Cyrus cylinder ca. 540 BC has it fully formed; no doubt there was a preceding oral tradition but we're never going to know what the ontogeny may have been)

- (b) everyone uses the same tricks, because they learn them from their enemies (in an adjacent field the KGB's precursor learned all their dirty tricks from the Okhrana, probably in a nearly unbroken line going back to the first chimps who put together a coalition to overthrow the alpha chimp before the alpha sniffed it out. 100W is pretty expensive for a neural net; how else are you going to justify that calorie expenditure without scheming and plotting?)

- (c) telling truths that might hurt is more effective than lying (judging by XXI standards, maybe that's why he's been dropped from the curriculum?)

Placeholder for an imminent stack on neo-colonialism (a)

Eg how frontmen and compradores subvert all of "identity politics", "technofeudalism", "corporatism", "monetary policy" lolll

Update: word that means both welfare and loyalty?

Gemini offers https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/%EC%A0%95#:~:text=After%20fig...

And

https://aims.education/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/amanah.jpg...

This is an excellent game. Anything better in hanzi than 仁? (if that character be "2" with a "person" radical, it would even wear its symbolism up front)

[oh, wait, according to LC the W and L are supposed to be different legs of an antisymmetric vertical, not a symmetric horizontal, relationship. So that's probably not appropriate at all?]

Re: H&A, I guess we could update GKC: "The Enlightenment ideal has not been tried and found wanting. It has been found difficult; and left untried."

We all love LLMs; would their advice be even more likely to be followed if there was a hardware device to issue smoke ("bells and smells") alongside their pronouncements? https://www.ancientsculpturegallery.com/wp-content/uploads/2...

Fwiw i thought the (anti)symmetry behind the German "pun" feels kind of forced [in a Buxton sense maybe?] Only the [very] modern Korean examples passed my intuition test. Example 2 was certainly ironic, but the idea (ex3) of businesses being loyal to the customer comes closest to the (less ironic) vibe I was looking for. Noted also the level of emotionality compared to the others (including "amanah"?)

https://m.sohu.com/a/234156713_100184887/?pvid=000115_3w_a

The cross does not seem standard; urex "ren" (emotional, love--) is usually juxtaposed with "yi" (rationalistic, but more emotional than "solidarity"?) ditto for the other 2 arms.

Btw 義理 was the (rationalising?) Japanese example that ai mode returned to me.

"Xin"/"trustworthiness"/"amanah" seem to be comparable in "emo-rationality" (slightly more centred than "treue")-- to ask LLMs later)

PS- I tend to view/use LLMs as a realtime debugger for social media, not a therapist (yet). Debugger hardware (moistware? Miasmaware?) is another rabbit hole. :)

What is that painting? A torah allegory? (Sorry don't want to rabbit hole for a couple of days :)

PPS- will ask LLM on how to interest you in a Buxton-GKC-Kahneman/Tversky connection :))

You've mentioned hu, 狐; will it summon our resident 狐憑き?

The painting is https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pythia#/media/File:John_Collie... (my inspiration for https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=39863255 )

PS. already interested, no need to bother the tensors!

Its a pity that 搜狐 didn't mention the (5-1) _cardinal_ virtues[0]

Out of an abundance of caution, I'd wildly guess PH ("dyadically")

-Doesn't want to let us see him sweat (usage his)

-is still consulting the I-Ching^W Copilot on how to proceed

[0] tangential to the "last word on combinators", I'd note that the source-glyph for [virtuosity-]zero --"xin" in the Chinese^W 搜狐 moral compass-- has a possibly negative emotional valence. At least according to an unreliable "guru" of mine, it depicts a mute with a pipe shoved down his throat (~south indian communal version of modern Slavic phallic graffiti :)

So thoroughly vibing Kohut or Leucippus, that'd be bootstrapping (hallucinating?) one from zero? "A cut from no-cut"? To what extent is noncommutativity relevant here in your opinion? (Prepping ourselves for a Woah)

https://www.open.ac.uk/blogs/MathEd/index.php/2022/08/25/the...

Your greeks under the influence of hallucinogenic ethylene (what boffins understand today as the smoke of Delphic bongs) however... Speak like PH would like to..?

Another tactic would be to redirect your question about death to PH in another Newish stub ( as he certainly has vastly more rubs with Death than I)

"Google AI Mode" suggests "allegiance" as an english word, which in its past: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Homage_(feudal) referred to a bond along which welfare flowed in one direction and loyalty in the other.

A lot of these issues could or should be somewhat headed of by a responsible media, and by more disdain for politicians out to rip the system.

I sort of think Fukuyama was at least as close if not closer, in this famous quote. The issue isn't just screens and the virality of it all, it's the soft men making hard times problem, just more weirdly than we expected,

> But supposing the world has become "filled up", so to speak, with liberal democracies, such as there exist no tyranny and oppression worthy of the name against which to struggle? Experience suggests that if men cannot struggle on behalf of a just cause because that just cause was victorious in an earlier generation, then they will struggle against the just cause. They will struggle for the sake of struggle. They will struggle, in other words, out of a certain boredom: for they cannot imagine living in a world without struggle. And if the greater part of the world in which they live is characterized by peaceful and prosperous liberal democracy, then they will struggle against that peace and prosperity, and against democracy.

https://www.goodreads.com/quotes/10161514-but-supposing-the-...

There's so many imagined threats everywhere. Insane conspiracies about Jade Helm or mind control contrails. People have flocked to absolute ridiculous delusional nonsense, in order to believe they are under attack, in order to let themselves feel oppressed. Anything fabrication for a just cause against the too peaceful state.

Or look at the anti-woke Buchanan invented in 1992 idea of the Culture Warriors. Even 30 years ago it was a need to instill a sense of strife, to frame it bad. Reagan before, terrifying the population of the state. All so silly. DEI is the big boogeyman now, the fear machine. But looking hard at the numbers, we find it really didn't actually cause a loss of opportunity for white men! Their numbers were fine. https://bsky.app/profile/iansociologo.bsky.social/post/3matx...

It's all such cowardice. Being afraid of spectres, being easily stirred by the dark side emotions. No matter how nonsense. And the media & opposition have all given up trying to steer this ship of fools.

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