“Overall, 76% of female murders and 56% of male murders were perpetrated by someone known to the victim.”
https://bjs.ojp.gov/female-murder-victims-and-victim-offende...
https://bjs.ojp.gov/female-murder-victims-and-victim-offende...
> https://bjs.ojp.gov/female-murder-victims-and-victim-offende...
Lets say M is "being murdered" and A is "stranger in the house", "not A" is "person known to the victim in the house".
The numbers you're quoting say that P(not A | M) is large, implying that P(A | M) is small.
However, to make a decision on whether to let someone in, I care about P(M | A).
You need to exercise that critical thinking more. You just heard someone say "the murders are known to the victim" and you instantly dropped your common sense.
All you're saying is you don't like my model (presumably because you'd like more inputs to the estimation?). Ok. You might not like my model, but at my comment on conditional probabilities was correct. The person that I was responding to wasn't that.
That doesn't sound very sane.