Personally, my money's on the universe is a simulation of itself.
Personally, my money's on the universe is a simulation of itself.
Yes, I've read Bostrom's paper[0], but he misses a key point: the number of rational beings in each simulated universe may decrease exponentially. If, on average over all universes, each rational being simulates only 0.5 rational beings during his or her lifetime, the total number of simulated rational beings would be exactly equal to the total number of unsimulated rational beings, making it equally plausible that we are in the root universe or one of the simulations.
The possibility that rational beings diminish in number exponentially as universes are simulated seems not only plausible, but likely given the nature of the simulations necessary to replicate our universe in all its detail.
Remember that you do live in a simulation of the universe so compressed it fits between your ears, and it does contain many simulations of other rational actors. They're nowhere near as complex as your whole universe, but I bet they're complex enough to know that they're complex enough.
Can you predict where I am going with this line of questioning?
No, that's not the problem. The simulation argument essentially depends on the fact that a universe that reaches simulation-capability ends up simulating more rational beings than half of the beings that exist in the universe itself. But it's possible that the simulations themselves are so limited that they can only simulate some fraction of the universes' number of rational beings. In fact, that seems likely: it seems that any simulation of this universe which obeys the same laws as this universe must be smaller than this universe. "How much smaller?" is the glitch. The simulated universes have to be sufficiently large (as measured by the number of rational minds they ultimately simulate) to exceed an average of 0.5 simulated minds per real mind in order for the simulation argument to hold.
Does this, literally, mean anything at all? I struggle to find any significant value in having this knowledge. Are there any additional conclusions we can draw based on knowing that the universe is a 'simulation of itself'?
It just strikes me as tautological.
Pretty much, yeah. There's as much value in it as in any kind of metaphysics, I guess; it makes it easier to get on with being an ape despite the creeping feeling that being an ape doesn't mean anything.
Basically-- I know that my experience of the universe is an interaction of the universe with itself, and that things I perceive also ~perceive me. I create the universe as it creates me, and the idea of "something" "real" "existing" outside of my experience of it doesn't make sense because none of those words make sense outside of my experience.
So my experience is a simulation, but what it is being simulated by is, in fact, my experience. Thus: A simulation of itself. It makes about as much sense as anything else.
In terms of pragmatic value? Eh. My view of philosophy is that the simplest reason to do something besides philosophy is most likely the best.
(I swear I don't sound like a crazy person in real life-- but despite my valediction, I love talking about this sort of thing.)
Simulation, to me, means an approximate recreation. To say that your experience is a simulation leads me to wonder what you're a simulation of. An act can't simulate itself as it's not approximately itself, it is itself.
Words need uniqueness to be helpful as a form of communication, and if we call simulations anything acting like something else OR itself, then by calling something a simulation, you're just stating its existence, which I can't find a reason to do that can't be accomplished in a more direct way.
In other words, yes things exist. Let's not ruin the word 'simulation' trying to say so!
I'm not willing to call the universe a simulation of itself. I agree with the idea of using the universe to simulate itself, though. Computer simulations are limited by accuracy and time, but if you assume arbitrary amounts of time, and if you don't need perfect accuracy (or laws of physics dictate safe time/space steps for the simulation), you can theoretically simulate arbitrarily complex physics for a brief amount of time. Sorry for stating the obvious with that, but I'd like to contrast the typical "computer simulation" idea with the following: I consider physics experiments to be attempts at using the universe (a small part of it) to simulate other parts of the universe. Computer simulations pale in comparison.
I got lost on this part of your comment: "So my experience is a simulation, but what it is being simulated by is, in fact, my experience. Thus: A simulation of itself."
Entertaining mental maps as simulations, for the sake of argument, I agree with the first part: mental (inner) experience is a simulation of sorts of the outer world. I don't understand the second half of your first sentence. The "what" that is providing your perception (inner experience) is your brain, right? I don't understand how you're making the connection that the brain is your experience. That seems like a lazy use of the word "is", and with a narrower replacement, the equivalence would not hold and you would not be able to claim "the universe simulates itself".
Actually it wouldn't have to be "a completely accurate simulation of our universe in our universe". A "somewhat accurate simulation of our universe in our universe" would also do for the statistical purposes of that premise. If you have recursively-simulated universes, even if they are not 100% like each other, it shouldn't change the probabilities, right?
That said, I don't fully agree with the main premise:
>if recursively-simulated universes are possible it becomes vanishingly unlikely that we do not live in one
Sounds to me somewhat akin to the faulty "ontological proof of the existence of God" ("Anselm defined God as "that than which nothing greater can be conceived", and then argued that this being could exist in the mind. He suggested that, if the greatest possible being exists in the mind, it must also exist in reality. If it only exists in the mind, a greater being is possible—one which exists in the mind and in reality.").
Say we cook up a little Earth simulator, and it spontaneously generates a perfect being with both agency and omniscience. That would be a fair bit of evidence for the ontological argument, yes?
That's also why I say "completely accurate". A really rigorous argument relies on recursive simulation, since creating a simulation that couldn't be the universe isn't very strong evidence. (I'm typing on one right now, in fact.) If we make a completely accurate simulation, we can skip the step of proving that we can make a simulation of it, because we already did.
That depends on the probability of a given universe or simulated universe to contain a simulated universe, and what limits there are with the complexity in space and time on each recursive simulation. I suspect that thermodynamics saves us here.
That is, the probability that the probability of being in a simulation is high in a given possible universe is, itself, high, ad infinitum, if simulation is possible, hence again why being able to simulate our universe is an important point of evidence.