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Comment by Ancalagon | Hacker News Reader

Seems like demographics, AI, and tech parity are converging on a Taiwan takeover attempt in the 2027-2030 timeframe.

If China actually catches up and surpasses the West/TSMC in fab technology and production, I think they'd have a better option, which is simply flooding the world market with high-end chips and obliterating the Taiwanese economy. Eventually, joining an economically dominant China might become more palatable, or a necessity.

At this point I'm willing to wave around the little red book for a 1TB of ram.

I don't have that many kidneys left to buy gpus, ram and ssd at the prices they are now, let alone the prices next year.

This would be more in-line with their strategy in other areas. Quietly massively improve technical capability and then utterly out-compete international competitors. They did this with solar, multicopters, are in progress with doing this with TVs, nuclear power, etc. War is expensive and destructive, it's easier and nicer to just negate the economic relevance of your opponents if you have the time and resources to do it (which they do).

China is also doing this with weapons. It's just a little more difficult normal people to see the results because people can't get a Dongfeng 2x series rocket from Ali Express.

Realistically, the general public doesn't have access to an honest appraise of their capabilities. So we are left to infer from their accomplishments in other high-tech areas what their military industry is capable of producing.

How much money would Taiwan have to be offerred to voluntarily place their heads under the boot of China

The leadership will have a price in mind and they won’t be the ones under the boot. Everyone has a price to look the other way even if they think they are principled now.

China is building all kinds of suggestive tech including invasion barge piers to land heavy stuff quickly once a beachhead has been established http://www.hisutton.com/Chinese-Invasion-Barge-OSINT.html

I know mass media keeps pounding this "eventual scenario" (manufacturing consent and all). Maybe it will happen, but the Chinese think on longer timelines than the ADHD West and are probably banking on A). Out-attriting, B). Out-innovating. If both happen, we might find ourselves with a situation where Taiwan voluntarily wants to align closer with China as the West flails.

China know that the one child policy has fucked their demographics and that their future isn't as rosy as it might appear now

Why would the nation that implemented the one-child policy be unable to implement a three child policy?

Reversing demographic momentum isn’t so easy. You have a cascade effect which happens, and high costs of a massive elderly population can’t be borne by a sudden baby boom. Also, through the medical system, etc, you can force people to abort their children, but it’s harder to force them to make children.

They will just tax condoms to sponsor the elderly homes.

And that's more of the "propaganda narrative" (google that term) getting pounded at us from all channels over the past several years. It's so 1984 - remember when we were told they were growing too much and getting overpopulated and the planet was going extent any moment? So which one is it? Anyways, their population decrease will be offset by AI and automation all while they still pump out more honor students than the entire West combined. They'll be fine is what I'm saying.

> manufacturing consent

I think it's more like smearing/projection, like Republican conspiracy theories about Democrats being pedophiles. Guess where the real pedophiles were hanging out the whole time.

The track record says China will probably just buy Taiwan.

If you hate invasions so much, you should probably focus your energies on Venezuela. Looks like Trump might start a war for Christmas.

Wars are old fashioned. This is a “special military operation”

is 1950 old-fashioned? The Korean War was originally called a "police operation"

Peaceful democratic transition is also on the table when KMT wins back the presidency next.

Read as "anyone connected flees to the US, anyone deemed political gets a free relocation to a Xinjiang re-education camp, and lots of new mainland 'mothers' live with those allowed to remain".

Why would anyone voluntarily sign up to have Winnie the Pooh's boot on their face?

You have brain worms

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