It's incredibly amusing to me reading some people's comments here critical of AI, that if you didn't know any better, might make you think that AI is a worthless technology.
It's incredibly amusing to me reading some people's comments here critical of AI, that if you didn't know any better, might make you think that AI is a worthless technology.
"Worthless" is ambiguous in this sentence. I think people understand that AI isn't useless in that it at least to some degree does the things it is intended to do. At the same time, it might be valueless in that a world without it is preferable to some.
Landmines are not useless, but they are valueless. Opinions differ is to what degree generative AI is like landmines in terms of externalities.
More important is to remember the impact of technology is not inevitable or predetermined. We can have (some) agency about how technologies are used. The impact of AI is likely to be much more negative than it could be because of he tech bro oligopoly emerging in the US. But that isn't because of 'human nature' or something inevitable or baked into the tech — it's because of local, historical factors in the US right now.
> The impact of AI is likely to be much more negative than it could be because of the tech bro oligopoly emerging in the US.
There is circularity here because the tech bro oligarchy will certainly be empowered and enriched by AI as well.
Several things can be true at the same time : it's possible for the wild claims of great efficiency gains and transformative (for good) power of AI to be overblown (for the sake of stock prices) AND for AI applied to surveillance to be a terrifying prospect.
Surveillance AI doesn't need to be correct to be terrifying.
The easy solution becomes a giant bull market in law enforcement jobs.
We've effectively created a panopticon in recent years—there are cameras absolutely everywhere. Despite that, though, the effort to actually do something with all of those feeds has provided a sort of natural barrier to overreach: it'd be effectively impossible to have people constantly watching all of the millions of camera feeds available in a modern city and flagging things, but AI certainly could.
Right now the compute for that is a barrier, but it would surprise me if we don't see cameras (which currently offer a variety of fairly basic computer vision "AI" alerting features for motion and object detection) coming with free-text prompts to trigger alerts. "Alert me if you see a red Nissan drive past the house.", "Alert me if you see a neighbor letting his dog poop in my yard.", "Alert the police if you see crime taking place [default on, opt out required]."
Unfortunately that doesn't prevent much of anything since our language is extremely expressive and AI will just make up anything it needs to in order to fill in the blanks. When it comes to things like oppressing a group of people, or maximizing profits by dynamically setting your prices using a guess of each individual's income you can accomplish what you set out to do even with huge margins or error. We already know that people will use this technology who simply will not care if they price out or imprison a few people who shouldn't have been so long as massive numbers of their enemies are locked up or their profits continue to climb.
I've been looking for something like this for the last 20 years, and this is the first time I've seen anything that can actually produce intelligent answers about the giant trove of personal documents I've got floating around.
It's at least plausible that we are sufficiently complex that, even with tons of NSA and corporate data and extremely sophisticated models, you still wouldn't be able to predict someone's behavior with much accuracy.
ChatGPT can be one of the best profiling tools, and imagine combining it with Google etc. Which we know has been done before so why not again or maybe already going in.
We are not that far away from border police to possibly review my government issued “suspiciousness level” and just auto reject.
I think this is beginning of the end on privacy against government. There will be a new tech movement (among hackers) focusing on e2e, local AI and all forms of disconnected private computing, but general population is absolutely doomed.
But so much of the takeaway is that it's "impossible" for top-down government to actually process all of what was happening within the system they created, and to respond appropriately and timely-- thus creating problems like food shortages, corrupt industries, etc etc. So many of the problems were traced to the monolith information processing buildings owned by the state.
But honestly.. with modern LLMs all the way up the chain? I could envision a system like this working much more smoothly (while still being incredibly invasive and eroding most people's fundamental rights). And without massive food and labour shortages, where would the energy for change come from?
But a major failing of the Soviet economic system was that there simply wasn't good data to make decisions, because at every layer people had the means and incentive to make their data look better than it really was. If you just add AI and modern technology to the system they had it still wouldn't work because wrong data leads us to the wrong conclusions. The real game changer would be industrial IoT, comprehensive tracking with QR codes, etc. And even then you'd have to do a lot of work to make sure factories don't mislabel their goods
If the economy were otherwise stagnant, maybe. But top-down planning just cannot take into account all the multitudes of inputs to plan anywhere near the scale that communist countries did. Bureaucrats are never going to be incentivized anywhere near the level that private decision making can be. Businesses (within a legal/regulatory framework) can "just do" things if they make economic sense via a relatively simple price signal. A top-down planner can never fully take that into account, and governments should only intervene in specific national interest situations (eg in a shortage environment legally mandating an important precursor medicine ingredient to medical companies instead of other uses).
The Soviet Union decided that defence was priority number one and shoved an enormous amount of national resources into it. In the west, the US government encouraged development that also spilled over into the civilian sector and vice-versa.
> But a major failing of the Soviet economic system was that there simply wasn't good data to make decisions, because at every layer people had the means and incentive to make their data look better than it really was.
It wasn't just data that was the problem, but also quality control, having to plan far, far ahead due to bureaucracy in the supply chain, not being able get spare parts because wear and tear wasn't properly planned, etc. There's an old saying even in private business that if you create and measure people on a metric they'll game or over concentrate on said metric. The USSR often pumped out large numbers of various widgets, but quality would often be poor (the stories of submarine and nuclear power plant manufacturers having to repeatedly deal and replace bad inputs was a massive source of waste).
Factory machines transmitting their current rate of production all the way up to International Govt. which, being all knowing, can help you regulate your production based on current and forecasted worldwide consumption.
And your machines being flexible enough to reconfigure to produce something else.
Stores doing the same on their sales and Central Bank Digital Currency tying it all together.
You are making another extreme claim of AI in comparison to the other extreme worthless technology claim.
I think you are spreading FUD for our poor AI not unlike Hinton but it's okay for him since he's being biased for a reason.
Your conjecture is making it looks like the fictional Minority Report movie at best and Terminator movies scenario at worst, that I think is a bit extreme.
They run simulations against N million personality models, accurately predicting the outcome of any news story/event/stimulus. They use this power to shape national and global events to their own ends. This is what privacy and digital sovereignty advocates have been warning the public about for over a decade, to no avail.
All the money in the world has been invested into trying to do it with stock markets, and they still can't do better than average.