sounds about right

Yes, I personally think so. In the hands of an experienced user you can crank out work that would take days or weeks even, and get to the meat of the problem you care about much quicker. Just churning out bespoke boilerplate code is a massive time saver, as is using LLMs to narrow in on docs, features etc. Even high level mathematicians are beginning to incorporate LLM use (early days though).

I cant think of an example where an LLM will get in the way of 90% of the stuff people do. The 10% will always be bespoke and need a human to drive forward as they are the ones that create demand for the code / work etc.

I agree totally; most people are no experienced, and there is a weird situation where the productivity gains are bifurcated. I have also seen a lot of developers unable to steer the LLM as they can’t pick up on issues they would otherwise have learned through experience. Interesting to see what will happen but probably gonna be a shit show for younger devs.