Comment by adventured | Hacker News Reader

Comment by adventured | Hacker News Reader

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What I'm seeing Ad infinitum on HN in every thread on agentic development: yeah but it really doesn't work perfectly today.

None of these people can apparently see beyond the tip of their nose. It doesn't matter if it takes a year, or three years, or five years, or ten years. Nothing can stop what's about to happen. If it takes ten years, so what, it's all going to get smashed and turned upside down. These agents will get a lot better over just the next three years. Ten years? Ha.

It's the personal interest bias that's tilting the time fog, it's desperation / wilful blindness. Millions of highly paid people with their livelihoods being disrupted rapidly, in full denial about what the world looks like just a few years out, so they shift the time thought markers to months or a year - which reveals just how fast this is all moving.

You aren't wrong, but you’re underestimating the inertia of $10M+/year B2B distributors. There are thousands of these in traditional sectors (pipe manufacturing, HVAC, etc.) that rely on hyper-localized logistics and century-old workflows.

Buyer pressure will eventually force process updates, but it is a slow burn. The bottleneck is rarely the tech or the partner, it's the internal culture. The software moves fast, but the people deeply integrated into physical infrastructure move 10x slower than you'd expect.

Internal culture changes on budget cycles, and right now, most companies are being pushed by investors to adopt AI. Have your sales team ask about AI budgeting vs. SaaS budgeting. I think you'll find that AI budget is available and conventional SaaS/IT budget isn't. Most managers are looking for a way to "adopt ai" so I think we're in a unique time.

> people deeply integrated into physical infrastructure move 10x slower than you'd expect.

My experience is yes, to move everyone. To do a pilot and prove the value? That's doable quickly, and if the pilot succeeds, the rest is fast.

I don't think you can guarantee it will get better. I'm sure it will improve from here but by how much? Have the exponential gains topped out? Maybe it's a slow slog over many years that isn't that disruptive. Has there been any technology that hasn't hit some kind of wall?

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