Degenerates. Gambling on situations like this attracts the worst people in society. It would be no surprise to find these people also deeply into crypto scams or scams that rob the elderly or managing businesses that overcharge poor people because those poor people have no other local options but to use that business.
It technically resolved according to the rules of the market. A lot of traders on Polymarket seem to place bets on what they think is happening on the ground, when its been clear to me a while, that the key to winning is understanding how and when the sources will report the facts. And now I should add "whether".
I've always wondered how the resolution mechanism can be trusted. Won't someone with enough money rig that? It's not like PoW or PoS where a cheater with huge resources would ruin their own stolen money.
“Priced in”.
Wherever there's gambling, there's sharks. If you don't know whether you're a shark or a fish in this pond, then you're a fish.
what about the turtles?
Not the first sketchy Polymarket resolution. It's also worth noting the rules can change on the fly. Earlier this year ISW changed how they map the war in Ukraine by introducing "Russian infiltration areas" where in the past they would have said "Russian-controlled territory". Polymarket updated the rules to say "Russian infiltration areas" wouldn't count if you are betting on a "Will Russia capture X?" market. Great news if you're betting on Ukraine, not so great if you're betting on Russia.
Other notable ones?
The Fordow (Iran Nuclear power plant) market was disputed several times because it wasn't clear whether the facility was destroyed by the US attack. The rules said it had to be confirmed by the IAEA, and many people figured they wouldn't be able to access the facility. However, the market resolved as destroyed because of some comments made by IAEA's director in a French radio show.
Related:
America's betting craze has spread to its news networks