It's weird that it compares the numbers in all Britain to only "a district of around 300,000 people".

Google says there are 70.000.000 persons there:

7E7/3E5/250 = .93 ~ 1 << 20 deaths << 10000 "ear or chest infections"

> That is about a million to one chance

A million to one is much bigger, the number in the example are almost 100 millions to one per year