Was in a hotel in Sapporo, almost got thrown out of bed. Lot of people in the hotel lobby now.
Considering leaving Hokkaido by air if a Hokkaido and Sanriku Subsequent Earthquake Advisory is issued, don't really want to be in a potential megaquake.
Considering leaving Hokkaido by air if a Hokkaido and Sanriku Subsequent Earthquake Advisory is issued, don't really want to be in a potential megaquake.
I agree the parent will likely be fine, but it can be stressful in the aftermath of a large quake. And if they want to leave the area and have the opportunity to do so calmly and safely, I think that’s justified.
[1] https://www.usgs.gov/faqs/what-probability-earthquake-a-fore...
And also point out that last night’s earthquake in Northern Japan was not a “prophecy”. Just a regular, large earthquake - which do occur pretty frequently in Japan. And I say "large" not just because of the magnitude, but because parts of Aomori experienced 6+ shaking on the shindo scale [2] which is categorized as "brutal" [3].
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/July_2025_Japan_megaquake_prop...
[2] https://www.data.jma.go.jp/multi/quake/quake_detail.html?eve...
[3] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japan_Meteorological_Agency_se...
The July megaquake prophecy scare was dumb because it originated in a work of fiction, not intended to be taken seriously by its author and not based on any scientific evidence. If the "prophecy" had come true, it'd be by luck alone. fwiw, I'd say it didn't come true; the 8.8 magnitude earthquake was near Kamchatka and didn't actually damage Japan, though a tsunami seemed plausible enough that there was a precautionary evacuation.
This "strong quake" is a thing that happened, not a "smart prophecy" [1]. Talk of aftershocks is not a prophecy either; it's a common-sense prediction consistent with observations from many previous earthquakes.
[1] smart prophecy is an oxymoron. A prediction is either based on scientific evidence (not a prophecy) or a (dumb) prophecy.
Again, sorry if this seemed antagonistic or something, I really am just unsure of what you were saying.
A relatively major (but not M8.8) quake has now hit in December 2025. It is intelligent to expect there may be aftershocks in the days after a significant earthquake actually happens, which can sometimes be larger than the initial quake. This is a well-accepted scientific fact born out of large amounts of data and statistical patterns, not whimsical doomsdayism.
Fukushima's M9.0-9.1 was around a 1-in-1000-year scale event. The last time Japan saw such a powerful earthquake was in the 869 AD. It would be reasonable to expect one of that scale to not happen again for another 1000 years.
BTW, you are safer in hotel than outside. No need to stay in lobby, go to bed, just protect your head. I experienced much bigger one in Sapporo in 2018.
That "worn down house" might be good until "upper 6". Beyond that it all depends on when it was built and the associated construction standards at the time.
Source: https://isec-society.org/ISEC_PRESS/ASEA_SEC_03/pdf/St-5_v5_...
It all stems from an earthquake in 1923 in Yokohama which killed 140,000. Since then Japan's has over time developed some of the strictest seismic standards.
Two issues: 1. If you're making this choice during an earthquake, "outside" is often not a grassy field but rather the fall zone for debris from whatever building you're exiting. 2. If the earthquake is big/strong enough that you're in any real danger of building level issues, the shaking will be strong enough that if you try to run for the outside you're very likely to just fall and injure yourself.
- make sure nothing can fall on you when you're in bed (no mounted artwork above the headboard; no lamps etc on side tables that are high enough to fall on you)
- make sure you have footwear in your bedroom, so you can be mobile if there's broken glass everywhere
- store extra drinking water somewhere (I used a 6-gallon carboy that I periodically refilled)
Probably there are other good things to do, but all those made a lot of sense to me. Most of us spend more time in bed than in any other fixed location, so making sure the bed is a safe place rings true. And water is life.
Guidance varies. California list here https://earthquake.ca.gov/wp-content/uploads/sites/8/2025/02...
You should have water, food, medical supplies, and cash.
btw you might find this interesting https://www.amusingplanet.com/2021/01/san-franciscos-hidden-...
I also recommend SF people consider joining NERT: neighborhood emergency response team. Disaster after disaster should teach us the opposite of what you argue in terms of response: in fact it's more likely that the scale of people affected will quickly overwhelm resources, and the existence of choke points will severely limit movement of people and resources, especially if infrastructure is damaged and people are flooding out of the city. That can be mitigated by having locals trained to help facilitate emergency response efforts. It's less "pulling people out from under bookshelves" and more "help managing the bureaucracy of the fire department," forms on forms on forms! Though the training does involve pulling someone out from under a bookshelf. It's a week long and quite fun!