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Comment by CraigJPerry | Hacker News Reader

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CraigJPerry·

6k month over the past decade is circa 1.7m today depending on which index fund you chose.

Assuming a 4% draw down (conventionally agreed to be safe) is over 5.5k a month.

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The 4% rule is considered safe for a 30 year retirement period. So at 50 you might want to withdraw a little less.

Money has lost about about 10% per year in value for the past 5 years. It used to take like a million dollars to retire, but now it's like double that. In addition, nobody really knows how long they might live or how bad inflation could get. Imagine retiring at 50 only to be wiped out, and maybe still on the hook to pay for your own expenses for another 50 years, plus whoever you have in your life who counts on you.

2 millions to retire? Without owning a house? You must be kidding, unless you plan to live only until 60 or move to the cheapest place in the country. Also keep in mind that most health problems start after 50.

To be fair, if you believe all the usual assumptions, then you can expect to earn 5% on that money. That would turn into $100k annually which is enough to live just about anywhere. Now, if you retire on time, I think this may also be tax free. So it's not that crazy, except for the unknowable inflation part of the puzzle. If inflation is also 5%, then your effective loss is 5% per year, so you'd be down nearly 100% after 20 years. Housing costs are crazy, but if you don't need to work then you can easily move to a cheaper place to save money.

Would you be making $250k ten years ago? Probably not unless you were super high in the corporate ladder.

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