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I submitted this exact url yesterday. What’s the criteria for when hn creates a new post vs going to the existing?

Mods usually apply [Dupe] to later submissions if a recent (last year or so) one had a fair amount of discussion.

So if mine got no discussion they just allow a new one to be posted?

Sometimes they'll merge the two. What shows up on the FP is hit or miss. One might even say it's stochastic.

I wonder if someone's looked into the optimal time of day and day of the week to post for maximum traction.

If I had to guess it would be monday morning pacific time when people would rather be doing anything than working.

Surely there's already stats on this or even a whole paper :P Could pull all dupe posts over time and see which ones are more popular etc.