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Comment by sunshine-o | Hacker News Reader

Yes and the question is who does the German state really target to enroll in their "new" army. Because "This generation" has a lot of clearly distinct groups.

So it could be:

- the native young population who are now flocking in the AfD

- the people fighting the AfD in the street

- the second generation immigrants born there

- the very recent immigrants

- a mix of all

Because the alchemy of creating a working army and "esprit de corps" is much harder than in a corporation. You cannot just take a modern managerial approach to creating an army.

A mix of all will end up obviously in a disaster but selecting on any group will end up in a civil war or coup.

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Once the economy starts to collapse even more due to rising energy prices/cost of living they'll find enough people for the front. This would be the first war ever where no one showed up. Not going to happen. Bundeswehr has been whitewashed and propped up for years already in spite of being completely incapable of even providing Germany with defense for a prolonged time.

Many IT projects for freelancers in Germany are Bundeswehr/NATO related because they're among the few who hire people right now because of the economic situation.

Once we reach the point where people have to decide if they enlist in order to to keep on feeding their families, that'll sort itself out.

> A mix of all will end up obviously in a disaster

Why would an army that directly mirrors the civil society be a bad thing?

Because the military and war is like putting a society in a pressure cooker. Nothing good comes out of it.

We have been told in most stories that this is a time when people come together and stand up but this is really propaganda.

The reality is most people go a little bit crazy and paranoid in these situation. Understandably.

For example, friendly fires have always been very much under reported. Can you imagine what it lead too when an army is already a bit suspicious of each other?

Dude, it's kids. Their mind isn't set in stone, their opinions aren't very founded. Basic military service also includes ethical/political education. People are not getting packed into trenches yet, it's not prison. If anything, this is going to help tensions in society. They will share rooms, showers, dirt and sweat. We're all the same. Nothing has been shown more effective at tearing down prejudices than actual exposure and confrontation.

> We're all the same. Nothing has been shown more effective at tearing down prejudices than actual exposure and confrontation.

History is full of counter-examples.

Under scientific scrutiny it is not, tho. Contact interventions are considered the most effective tool to reduce prejudices across domains.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Contact_hypothesis

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S014971892...

If you want to get an idea of what a war situation would do to a society like Germany just remember Covid.

A battle between humanity and a virus deeply deeply divided our society. If I remember correctly Germany or Austria were ready to put non vaccinated people in jails.

About every lines of division deepens.

The topic isn't a "war situation" tho, but the forming of an army as deterrent.

I think you are arguing in bad faith. Otherwise you would have recognized Covid isolation has been the opposite of contact interventions. Oh and of course this:

> If I remember correctly Germany or Austria were ready to put non vaccinated people in jails.

You remember wrong, non vaccinated people actually got publicly sodomized by general Drosten himself before euthanization. The former now has been ruled unconstitutional, but failing to get every new vaccine within 3 months is still punishable by death. Life in Germany is unbearable, please stay away!

No need to get obscene. I do remember correctly it was indeed Austria.

Here is the explanation from a big law firm https://www.fwp.at/en/news/blog/austrias-covid-vaccine-manda...

(not the news)

> If I remember correctly Germany or Austria were ready to put non vaccinated people in jails.

Citation needed! I'm from Germany and followed the COVID rules real close. Please do not talk shit.

Sure https://www.fwp.at/en/news/blog/austrias-covid-vaccine-manda...

> In Austria, people are to be obliged to be vaccinated against the Coronavirus from 1 February 2022. This measure includes a mandatory booster vaccination for people who have already been vaccinated. Compulsory vaccination is nothing new in Austria, as the Federal Act on Smallpox Vaccination of 30 June 1948 was accompanied by a measure that sanctioned non-compliance with vaccination with an administrative fine. Administrative penalties are also foreseen with regard to the Corona-Vaccination obligation 2022. Fines of up to EUR 3.600,-- are foreseen for vaccination refusers and up to EUR 1.450,-- for people who do not attend a booster vaccination. Furthermore, vaccination refusers face prison sentences of up to four weeks if they do not comply with the new Federal Law.

The mandate was never implemented, because it was deemed a disproportional measure at the time. So what's your point? And how is this possibly relevant for the issue at hand?

https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19-Impfpflicht_in_%C3%96...

> If I remember correctly Germany or Austria were ready to put non vaccinated people in jails

Lol wtf, got any source for that except "IIRC"?

"I even heard they wanted to reintroduce the death penalty, just for the unvaccinated!" (see how easy it is to invent and spread lies?)

What the AF are you talking about. Stop spreading lies.

American south? Many contact, few rainbows and unicorns.

> People are not getting packed into trenches yet, it's not prison

Yet. And no it is not prison. Is forced labour and death so that some assholes make more profit.

Did you notice that every "patriot" who says "we will defend our country" never goes on the front line ? The same with their children.

When people are getting in the trenches, military service policies won't matter anyway. Before you get mobilization, professional soldiers are called to arms. In the war scenario, literally nothing changed due to this policy.

> Did you notice that every "patriot" who says "we will defend our country" never goes on the front line ? The same with their children.

Germany hasn't had a purely professional army for the longest time. Most men in Germany already served in the military, got basic training, or did alternative service (e.g. worked in a hospital). Mandatory military service is constitutionally set up to draw across the population, regardless of social or economic status. Again, we're not talking about who has to die when Russia invades, but who has to get basic military training...

In case you missed the details.

The current law from Friday states:

- every young adult get information material about the Musterung

- everyone is free to go there and free to go to do the basic training

- just in case we will have to few volunteers then the state can at first force everyone to go to the evaluation as it was before - if we will have to few recruits then next step is a loot box system

- then and only then the state can force you. But this has also limits as we are still in Germany

Yes it was a shitty move by Merz to not involve the actual effected generation but I would have expected a far much worst law then this.

> Did you notice that every "patriot" who says "we will defend our country" never goes on the front line ? The same with their children.

Excepting many of the signers of the US Declaration of Independence. I'll admit that's a rare exception.

> Nothing has been shown more effective at tearing down prejudices than actual exposure and confrontation.

The result has been fairly inconclusive. What happen is that people generally keep their views about in-groups and out-groups, but then add exception for the person they get exposed to. A good experience/friendship do not translate to a change in definitions for the in-group, nor does it change existing negative generalizations of the out-group.

What has shown to be effective is demonstration of shared values by the out-group, while at the same time avoiding display of different values. When people share the same values, and more importantly, do not display a difference in values, then the in-group can be expanded.

If I remember right, the book Behave by Robert Sapolsky goes through this.

I would assume it will mostly be youths from the former GDR, which is extremely visible on economic maps, for instance: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_German_states_by_GRDP_...

Former East Germany is lit up in red, similar to how you could see the old borders on night satellite photos from the color temperature of the outdoor lights in West and East Germany, which was most easily noticed in Berlin (article has a picture from 2012): https://kottke.org/19/11/the-berlin-wall-of-light

The outdoor lights will eventually all be LED, which will erase the old border from the night skies.

Easy question: all of the above. National unity is more valuable than ever.

Lol, that's not an exhaustive characterization of "this generation". Most people are in neither group.

Also, the AfD folks would be rather fighting for Russia, the leftist activists will conscientiously object, and recent immigrants are not allowed to serve. Very weird to mention "second gen immigrants", as if ethnostate-ish racial tension is a wider issue in Germany and they are not normal citizens. I see no difference to children of Turkish migrants serving in the past. Do you realize Germany had mandatory military service before?

> A mix of all will end up obviously in a disaster but selecting on any group will end up in a civil war or coup.

Obviously! Jeez...

Btw. historically, after WWII, one of the reasons to have mandatory military service for every man was specifically to get a diverse army, as a cross-section of society, instead of clusters of certain dispositions, so the Bundeswehr exactly won't become an ideological, political force. Conscientious objection is a legal right for every soldier, at any moment, because of it. The constitution also prevents any sort of "group selection". A homogenized army is much more dangerous to the democratic order, than a diverse one. People thought of this before...

> Also, the AfD folks would be rather fighting for Russia

This is what I was suspecting a bit.

But how did they get there? didn't the people from the former German Democratic Republic (where AfD is very strong and a lot of recruits are) broke the wall to liberate themselves from Russia and the USSR?

What happened in the last decade that they would now swing back to Russia?

They discovered that just like under 'communism', in the 'west' not everyone gets the life of the top 10%.

For context, it's important to keep in mind the population density in former DDR regions is very low. Young people often flee towards bigger liberal cities, as soon as possible. Pronounced in eastern Germany, the AfD is a national problem.

In short: Propaganda. Germany is a major target of Russian influence. The AfD itself is heavily funded by Russia. There is no "old love" situation, Russia isn't representing socialist ideals or anything. (Russia wasn't loved back then either, btw.) Quite frankly, AfD followers often are just misled and detached from reason (e.g. objectively voting against their own interests). If you talk to them they often entertain some really fucking wild ideas and conspiratorial thinking. Of all parties in Germany, AfD has probably the most successful social media campaign, especially on TikTok. Mind you, the AfD's "not our problem"/"do nothing" position is aiding Russia in Ukraine. It's easy to put a nationalist/antisemitic spin on it.

Now, the leftist party is another story. There you find a completely misguided "old love" base, which is dogmatically "pacifist" and anti-NATO. They really should check the values Russia represents these days...

> But how did they get there? didn't the people from the former German Democratic Republic

It's not that complicated really, the eastern parts of Germany are on average poorer, older and less educated than the western parts, well paid jobs are rare, unemployment is higher (although tbf I'm unfair here towards the old generation, since those are not the typical AfD voters - it's rather the young people who tend to vote on the extreme ends of the political spectrum). Most of the smart young people move to where the grass is greener, those who stay are often bitter and disillusioned.

Carve out a similar demographic slice in western Germany, and you'll get similar high support for the AfD.

...basically the same reason why MAGA is bigger in the rural areas of the US than in the big cities.

> “ A mix of all will end up obviously in a disaster”.

I totally disagree. Everywhere I look, I’m being told that “diversity is our strength”. This will surely be the most awesome military in the history of human civilization.

I'm in the "recent" immigrants group. I qualify for citizenship since a few years, but this Wehrpflicht nonsense is why I haven't sent my application yet.

I don't think that the social situation is as bad as you describe. I just think that people generally don't feel keen to put their life on the line for Germany.

> I just think that people generally don't feel keen to put their life on the line for Germany.

Yes this what I am sincerely wondering: which group (however you want to define it) of relatively young people, do they believe they can leverage "to put their life on the line for Germany"?

By drowning the economy in crisises (energy costs, inflation, immigration, various climate taxes for industries, road tolls) while ramping up billions for military expenses. A stealthy way of shifting to a military industry. The Bundeswehr spent a lot of money on advertising over the last 6-7 years.

It feels like a repeat of a situation that wasn't that long ago.

You'd have better success getting people to fight for your cause when you provide them something of value they can't get elsewhere.

When what people get (using their labor to subsidize politicians & boomers via taxes & rent) is the same thing they can get in effectively any country or even under the invader's rule, the incentives to fight said invader become quite scarce.

This isn't even specific to Germany; a lot of people are fleeing conscription on both sides of the current conflict for the same reason - they just don't get enough benefit to make it worth putting their life on the line.

The plan currently involves a net salary of around 2k€/month, which is quite a lot for people fresh out of school.

I think people generally aren't keen on putting their life on the line for anything. But even if this was a mandatory conscription, there is still the constitutional right of conscientious objection.

> I qualify for citizenship since a few years, but this Wehrpflicht nonsense is why I haven't sent my application yet.

First world problems...

You will always be able to object military service, it's not difficult at all and absolutely won't be any time soon. I have a hard time imagining you to be forced to do alternative service. In case of actual war, when mobilization becomes a reality, well... your origin country will likely be involved too.

I think if you want the benefits of living in a country then you should be willing to defend it. This attitude of entitlement without responsibility is exactly what gives migrants a bad name.

I'm not getting any benefits. I was raised and educated elsewhere. I have no access to most social services. I have no kids. I'm here to pay taxes and get the bare minimum back. The services I've been getting were really nothing to write home about.

Ever since I moved here, the law made it very clear that this was a transactional relationship. That cuts both ways.

I uphold German values in my everyday behaviour. Killing for Germany was never on the table.

So why are you there then?

> I'm here to pay taxes and get the bare minimum back

I find this point of view to be profoundly sad and I hope it’s not shared by the majority of immigrants to germany

Not just immigrants, most Germans pay taxes for very little in return while bureaucracy keeps growing.

You are getting downvoted, but it is true that young people are getting a very rough deal, and a lot of the people in my circle are looking to emgirate. Friends from other countries and students (mostly know them through academia), are also not looking for long-term opportunities here anymore, which was different 15 years ago.

I would be far less annoyed with paying very high taxes and social contributions (around 50% of my income), if the services provided worked. But this just hasn't been the case for me. The healthcare system is close to breaking apart, and after moving to a new city 6 months ago I have been unable to find doctors willing to take me in. Childcare is constantly closing down due to staff shortages, buying a house is unrealistic unless both partners have good jobs or you inherit, and the jobs market is incredibly rigid and inflexible.

Every single one of these points are worse for young people then for older ones, and the only thing the government seems to get done is giving weapons training to young people and gifting pensioners 180b$/year extra.

I can only explain the downvotes by people who assume I'm somehow against immigrants since I used the term or who actually think that Germany is still worth living in. I have long given up on HN culture anyways.

Yes, the problem is the boomers who keep getting richer for no good reason, under the premise that they are entitled to massive pensions because they have been promised that much by politicians.

Of course, logically it makes no sense, since the whole point of a socialized system is to adjust the wealth of everybody depending on current situation (economic output).

But it was obviously a lie and our social democracy are deeply flawed because they allow anyone to vote regardless of stakes.

Sending young people to military service/war make for a nice distraction because meanwhile they don't get to think about taking the stuff of the elders by force.

If that makes you feel any better, this is also very much the case in France, actually, it's probably worse.

But I think it's a general trend in Europe and much of the western world who went all in for socialized everything/government control.

To add to what nicbou said, I would like to question the idea that the best way to defend a country is to enlist and fight a war. At the contrary, many are of the opinion that to defend Europe we have to oppose this recent trend of spending billions into the unproductive war machine.

When was the last time germans lined up to enlist in the army? How much good was it for their country?

>At the contrary, many are of the opinion that to defend Europe we have to oppose this recent trend of spending billions into the unproductive war machine.

We've tried that after the end of the cold war, now there is an active war in Europe. You can not unilaterally stop military spending if there are other countries ready to take advantage of it.

>When was the last time germans lined up to enlist in the army?

That would have been during the height of the Cold War, the resulting Reunification does have its drawbacks, but certainly beats getting overrun by the Soviet Union.

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