At current run rates, China sells more NEVs (EVs and plug in hybrids) domestically every year than total US light vehicle sales, while also exporting 6M NEV units globally. As of 2025, EVs are 1/4 (~20M units) of all light vehicles sold globally annually. EVs are expensive in the US because the US prioritizes profits for incumbents, not because it is expensive or we cannot do it. They would just rather fossil fuels, SUVs, and light pickup trucks be sold.
The best part is it doesn't matter what the US does: China will transform global light vehicle mobility for us as they continue to scale manufacturing both domestically and internationally. As this piece mentions, US vehicles are stagnant because new vehicles prices are near ~$50k; US automakers have no incentives to innovate or increase supply to push prices down when tariffs make imports of cheaper cars economically unviable. US consumers are trapped in an extraction box. You want a car? You must buy it from the oligopoly. It's not "EVs are too expensive" but instead "the US system is structured to extract dollars and profits from consumers for fossil fuel and auto industry interests" while China ruthlessly innovates and scales.
TLDR Short term profits will be taken from this arrangement, old people in power in the US will keep aging out, and China will keep scaling up. Observe trajectories and rate of change, think in systems.
Side quest: What happens to US automakers when their export market demand is diminished, perhaps entirely, by Chinese exports?
Citations:
https://restofworld.org/2025/china-us-ev-race/
https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2025/executive...
https://www.visualcapitalist.com/cp/electric-vehicle-sales-i...
https://cleantechnica.com/2025/07/21/53-ev-share-in-china-ju...
https://ourworldindata.org/electric-car-sales
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electric_vehicle_industry_in_C...
https://www.scmp.com/business/china-business/article/3334300...
https://insidechinaauto.com/2025/11/01/live-blog-china-octob...
https://www.byd.com/us/news-list/First-BYD-Electric-Vehicle-...
https://rhomotion.com/news/byd-announces-further-global-expa...
https://www.visualcapitalist.com/mapped-where-tesla-and-byd-...
(tangentially, China is 1/3rd of total global manufacturing capacity, as of this comment)