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Comment by swiftcoder | Hacker News Reader

> it is delivering massive productivity gains

[citation needed]

Every article I can find about this is citing the valuation of the S&P500 as evidence of the productivity gains, and that feels very circular

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What kind of citation or evidence would you expect? How would you measure productivity gains? From my personal life and activities however it is very clear. I have simply been able to do so many things I would have never been able to do without AI.

I feel similarly, but the other guy's point is still good; there is no empirical evidence that AI is really as helpful as we think, and there is empirical evidence that among those who perceive productivity gains, most are wrong and the rest are overestimating the effect.

Our experiences don't agree with the established facts, but the plural of "anecdote" is not "data."

I don't think it is something you can scientifically measure that easily and the studies that have tried are flawed. You can measure factory work, but you can't measure AI and software eng productivity gains or loss objectively.

> How would you measure productivity gains?

I'm not entirely sure - certainly anecdotes abound (as do anecdotes to the contrary).

I am however sure that when someone claims that a technology is world-changing, and that it has already led to significant productivity gains... the onus is on them to provide evidence for such claims

Should I not share my experiences then about something that can't be scientifically proven? I am not actually looking to prove anything, but I am sharing my experience. I don't even win anything from people believing me, but I guess I have this weird urge to "set something straight" if in my experience something is the case. I have done tons of DIY stuff that I wouldn't have been able to without AI. Tons of side projects. In my corpo work I have been able to do more with less hours and mental effort spent, although in corpo work AI has given me less gains since most of the time I have been blocked by other factors and everyone else.

It is too fast evolving to be able to be legitimately scientifically understood. It is non sense to expect that.

> Should I not share my experiences then about something that can't be scientifically proven?

By all means share anecdotes, but maybe phrase them as anecdotes. "improving my own productivity massively" is an anecdote, whereas "delivering massive productivity gains" reads as a sweeping generalisation

I see it delivering that for others too though. To me it is so obvious that I don't understand how anyone can think otherwise...

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