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Comment by vdupras | Hacker News Reader

This has to be related to Russia and the war in Ukraine. I'm not a military buff, so my analysis might be way off, but here we go.

  1. The US has sent a shitload of weapons to Ukraine over the last years.
  2. Given the US military superiority and how weak Russia is supposed to be, Russia should be on its knees right now.
  3. The US is promoting a peace plan that seems to heavily favor Russia.

So, at that point, I see two possibilities:

  1. Trump is a russian asset
  2. The US military is privately shitting its pants about how weak they are in this proxy war.

Theoretically, if Trump was a russian asset, he wouldn't go after Venezuela. Why would Russia want to destroy its puppet state?

So I'm going with 2, and it's the cold war again. This is an attempt by the US military to spread Russia thin for further conflicts coming all over the place.

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Idk, I assume it's about the heavy feedstock in the Orinoco Belt that our industrial base is addicted to and our own Gulf Coast refinery system.

If the MIC gets to test out some new toys in the field along the way they just consider that icing on the cake.

> US military is privately shitting its pants about how weak they are in this proxy war

What? Our 90s air defences are shooting down Russia's bleeding-edge missiles. We're withholding Tomahawks because Putin throws a hissy fit every time it comes up because Russia's newest, shiniest air defence systems--the ones it has been selling for hundreds of millions of dollars to Iran and Venezuela--have been getting potted by homemade Ukranian SEAD tactics.

Ukraine has exposed weaknesses in our drone arsenal. I bet China (or Venezuela) would have preferred to have encountered those weaknesses directly, but that's what you get for fucking around.

Trump probably isn't a Russian asset. And the U.S. military isn't shitting itself over a spent conventional power.

I understand that this is the conventionally accepted version of the military situation in Ukraine. But if that's the case, why is US' peace proposal favorable to Russia? The US should be laughing at Russia's puny attempts to breach their invincible defenses.

> if that's the case, why is US' peace proposal favorable to Russia?

Because Trump wants to end the war to get a Nobel peace prize and Russia can plausibly unilaterally deliver that. What that means for Ukraine or Europe or frankly American strategic interests is not being considered because MAGA voters aren't exactly your internationally literate types. (Which is fine.)

> US should be laughing at Russia's puny attempts to breach their invincible defenses

Nobody is ever laughing in war. But to the extent we've had martial hilarity in the last few years, it's been in Russia mangling their elite forces in the failed sacking of Kyiv; Moscow almost getting bulldozed by Prighozin, a disaster stopped only because Belarus bailed Putin out; and potentially Indian warplanes' confused radio calls while Pakistan's integrated air defences potted them.

Ok, so it's the peace prize. I don't have deep knowledge about this issue, so I guess you're right.

This makes me have funny thoughts. You know, we're all heavily influenced by propaganda. We have american propaganda, they have russian propaganda, they have chinese propaganda, etc.

So here it's the peace prize, and over there it's their super mega unstoppable missiles. There might be a day when foreign propaganda explains the reality that americans can observe in a manner that is more straightforward than their own nation's propaganda. That would be a fun day.

> here it's the peace prize, and over there it's their super mega unstoppable missiles

You're confusing motives and tactical reality. We're unsure about motives on both sides. We can, however, confidently speak to how weapons and tactics are facing off against each other, in large part due to the overwhelming amount of OSINT coming out of Ukraine.

Those data let us reject the hypothesis that the U.S. has any rational basis for being worried about Russian weapons or defences. (Which doesn't mean, of course, that they can't flip out. But again, motives versus tactical truth.)

I don't think I am. I'm talking about propaganda. Let's ask our propaganda machines "Why is the US peace plan so favorable to Russia".

Russia propaganda: because our super weapons do much better on the field than the US anticipated and they're shitting their pants now.

US propaganda: Because our weapons are invincible. Our superiority has always been overwhelming. America, fuck yeah! etc. etc. Oh wait, you meant those terms favorable to Russia? Yeah, huh, the peace prize.

I don't have the means to figure out who's right, but I know which one sounds funnier than the other.

It could be the Nobel Prize. It could be embarrassment that he is failing to deliver on a very smug campaign promise. It could be that Putin proxies bought a load of Trump crypto. It could be that MBS made it a condition of some investment. It could be that a man famous for having no attention span just decided to run with the advice of his most pro-Russia advisor.

We can't know for sure, but it certainly doesn't imply anything about Russia's status as a paper tiger.

Seems more likely that Trump is only loyal to himself. It would explain favoring Russia when it suits him and invading Venezuela due to the Epstein thing and/or fixation on oil.

> Given the US military superiority and how weak Russia is supposed to be, Russia should be on its knees right now.

The problem with this supposed quandary is that the US military isn't fighting Russia.

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