It's the nature of bubbles to overpromise and underdeliver.

So - do Altman and Andreesen really believe that, or is it just a marketing and investment pitch?

A reminder that OpenAI has its own explicit definition of AGI: "Highly autonomous systems that outperform humans at most economically valuable work."

The MS/OAI agreement quantifies that as "profits of $100bn/yr."

This seems rather stupid to me. If you can get multiple AGIs all generating profits of $100bn a year - roughly half an Apple, or two thirds of a Meta - you no longer have anything recognisable as a pre-AI economy, because most of the white collar population is out of work and no longer earning anything. And most of the blue collar population that depends on white collar earnings is in the same boat.

So you have to ask "Profits from doing what, and selling to whom?"

The Altman pitch seems to be "Promise it first, collect investor cash, and worry about the rest later."