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Comment by tzs | Hacker News Reader

In https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46061943 danishSuri1994 said that if others like China and ESA did not also develop reusable rockets they would be priced out of orbit access entirely. I have a question about that, but their comment got killed faster than I could type and submit my question so I'll ask it a level up.

Why would not having reusable rockets price someone like China or ESA out of orbit access?

I can see how it could price them out of the business of selling orbit access to other parties, but I don't see how it would stop them from accessing orbit for their own purposes.

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It can price you out of some projects - stuff like Starlink is basically impossible without the cost reduction via reusability.

The Wolf Amendment prevents Chinese satellites from launching on American rockets, so they don't have access to SpaceX prices. (which start at $325K)

European satellites can and do regularly launch on SpaceX though.

> European satellites can and do regularly launch on SpaceX though.

For now, that is. Until someone from Europe says something mean about the Bully in Chief, or threatens to side with the victim of an aggressive war… The EU can’t trust the USA anymore, so it’s high time to invest in sovereign orbit access.

If the cost of returning and refurbishing a rocket stage is less than the cost of building a new one then that gives a competitive advantage on price.

But space flight is a strategic competency for states so China, the EU, and even eventually Russia, will all develop reusable rockets. I suspect that launch capacity will far exceed demand and that none will make profits for a long time.

If only EU would take affordable mass space launch like the critical strategic capability it is :P

If a nation with RLVs can sustainably launch 10 anti-satellite interceptors per day but the nation without reusables can only launch 10 satellites per month, they're going to lose access to orbit.

Because if you can't sell launches on the open market, your own launches become exponentially more expensive. Cost sharing allows for the economies of scale that let governments piggyback.

Internal spending vs imports, I suppose. Keynes and all that

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