Sure OpenAI may well be bleeding money into the 2030s, or may even go bust completely depending on how pessimistic you are, but the analysis completely skips:
- They are building their own data centers, and will be less reliant on renting compute from Microsoft and Amazon over time.
- Once the AI bubble has subsided costs for GPU purchases and rentals will decrease significantly. Plus there will be more advancements and competition in the space (e.g. Google TPUs) and Nvidia will no longer be able to name their own price.
- We will write more efficient software for training and inference.
- Once user growth is tapped out OpenAI will no longer need to have the overly generous free tier that they do today. And if they decide to turn up the advertising faucet these users could bring in a ton more revenue than in the projection. Thinking that every AI company combined will capture only 2% of the total digital advertising market is ridiculous. AI apps are already challenging social media for scrolling time.
Basically, the entire space is evolving so rapidly that it's pointless to make a projection with the assumption that the landscape isn't going to change from here on.